BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//fru.dev//Predictions//EN CALSCALE:GREGORIAN METHOD:PUBLISH X-WR-CALNAME:Predictions: AGI coming due X-WR-CALDESC:Target dates of open predictions about data\, AI and tech\, from predictions.fru.dev X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT12H BEGIN:VEVENT UID:amodei-powerful-ai-as-early-as-2026@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Due: Dario Amodei: Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026. DESCRIPTION:Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.\nTarget as stated: as early as 2026.\nSource: https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-gra ce\nhttps://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/amodei-powerful-ai-as-early-a s-2026 URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/amodei-powerful-ai-as-early-as -2026 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:musk-digital-human-emulation-2026@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101 SUMMARY:Due: Elon Musk: Digital human emulation\, AI that can do any job d one at a computer\, will be solved by the end of 2026. DESCRIPTION:Digital human emulation\, AI that can do any job done at a com puter\, will be solved by the end of 2026.\nTarget as stated: by the end of this year.\nSource: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/elon-musk\nhttps://pred ictions.fru.dev/predictions/musk-digital-human-emulation-2026 URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/musk-digital-human-emulation-2 026 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:anthropic-powerful-ai-late-2026-early-2027@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270331 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270401 SUMMARY:Due: Anthropic: Powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or ea rly 2027. DESCRIPTION:Powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.\nT arget as stated: late 2026 or early 2027.\nSource: https://www.anthropic. com/news/anthropic-s-recommendations-ostp-u-s-ai-action-plan\nhttps://pre dictions.fru.dev/predictions/anthropic-powerful-ai-late-2026-early-2027 URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/anthropic-powerful-ai-late-202 6-early-2027 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:suleyman-white-collar-tasks-automated-18-months@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270815 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270816 SUMMARY:Due: Mustafa Suleyman: Most white-collar tasks done at a computer will be fully automated by AI within 12 to 18 months. DESCRIPTION:Most white-collar tasks done at a computer will be fully autom ated by AI within 12 to 18 months.\nTarget as stated: within the next 12 to 18 months.\nSource: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-ai-boss-s ays-ai-134000462.html\nhttps://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/suleyman-w hite-collar-tasks-automated-18-months URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/suleyman-white-collar-tasks-au tomated-18-months TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:amodei-country-of-geniuses-2026-or-2027@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280101 SUMMARY:Due: Dario Amodei: Powerful AI\, a "country of geniuses in a data center"\, will arrive in 2026\, or 2027 at the latest. DESCRIPTION:Powerful AI\, a "country of geniuses in a data center"\, will arrive in 2026\, or 2027 at the latest.\nTarget as stated: in 2026\, mayb e 2027.\nSource: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2\nhttps://predi ctions.fru.dev/predictions/amodei-country-of-geniuses-2026-or-2027 URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/amodei-country-of-geniuses-202 6-or-2027 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:amodei-ai-builds-next-generation-2-years@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280101 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280102 SUMMARY:Due: Dario Amodei: AI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomously builds its own next generation. DESCRIPTION:AI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomousl y builds its own next generation.\nTarget as stated: 1–2 years away.\nSou rce: https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology\nhtt ps://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/amodei-ai-builds-next-generation-2-y ears URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/amodei-ai-builds-next-generati on-2-years TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:legg-50-percent-chance-of-agi-by-2028@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20281231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290101 SUMMARY:Due: Shane Legg: There is a 50% chance of AGI by 2028. DESCRIPTION:There is a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.\nTarget as stated: by 20 28 (50% chance).\nSource: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/shane-legg\nhttps:// predictions.fru.dev/predictions/legg-50-percent-chance-of-agi-by-2028 URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/legg-50-percent-chance-of-agi- by-2028 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:clark-60-percent-automated-ai-rnd-2028@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20281231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290101 SUMMARY:Due: Jack Clark: There is about a 60% chance of automated AI R&D\, a model training its own successor\, by the end of 2028. DESCRIPTION:There is about a 60% chance of automated AI R&D\, a model trai ning its own successor\, by the end of 2028.\nTarget as stated: by the en d of 2028.\nSource: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-455-automat ing-ai-research\nhttps://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/clark-60-percent -automated-ai-rnd-2028 URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/clark-60-percent-automated-ai- rnd-2028 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:huang-agi-by-tests-within-5-years@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290319 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290320 SUMMARY:Due: Jensen Huang: AGI\, defined as passing a set of tests better than most people\, will arrive within 5 years. DESCRIPTION:AGI\, defined as passing a set of tests better than most peopl e\, will arrive within 5 years.\nTarget as stated: within 5 years.\nSourc e: https://techcrunch.com/2024/03/19/agi-and-hallucinations/\nhttps://pre dictions.fru.dev/predictions/huang-agi-by-tests-within-5-years URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/huang-agi-by-tests-within-5-ye ars TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:kurzweil-human-level-intelligence-by-2029@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20291231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20300101 SUMMARY:Due: Ray Kurzweil: Computers will reach human-level intelligence b y 2029. DESCRIPTION:Computers will reach human-level intelligence by 2029.\nTarget as stated: by 2029.\nSource: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/arti cle/2024/jun/29/ray-kurzweil-google-ai-the-singularity-is-nearer\nhttps:/ /predictions.fru.dev/predictions/kurzweil-human-level-intelligence-by-202 9 URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/kurzweil-human-level-intellige nce-by-2029 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:brown-labs-run-hundreds-of-millions-of-ais-2030@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20301231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20310101 SUMMARY:Due: Noam Brown: By the end of 2030 each leading lab will have com pute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs. DESCRIPTION:By the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run h undreds of millions of human-level AIs.\nTarget as stated: by the end of 2030.\nSource: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/noam-brown\nhttps://predictions .fru.dev/predictions/brown-labs-run-hundreds-of-millions-of-ais-2030 URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/brown-labs-run-hundreds-of-mil lions-of-ais-2030 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:greenblatt-ai-rnd-automated-2031@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20311231 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20320101 SUMMARY:Due: Ryan Greenblatt: AI research and development will be fully au tomated around 2030 to 2031. DESCRIPTION:AI research and development will be fully automated around 203 0 to 2031.\nTarget as stated: around 2031\, 2030.\nSource: https://www.dw arkesh.com/p/ryan-greenblatt\nhttps://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/gre enblatt-ai-rnd-automated-2031 URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/greenblatt-ai-rnd-automated-20 31 TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:musk-ai-exceeds-all-human-intelligence@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20320205 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20320206 SUMMARY:Due: Elon Musk: AI will exceed the combined intelligence of all hu mans in about five or six years. DESCRIPTION:AI will exceed the combined intelligence of all humans in abou t five or six years.\nTarget as stated: in five or six years.\nSource: ht tps://www.dwarkesh.com/p/elon-musk\nhttps://predictions.fru.dev/predictio ns/musk-ai-exceeds-all-human-intelligence URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/musk-ai-exceeds-all-human-inte lligence TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:altman-superintelligence-in-a-few-thousand-days@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20321210 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20321211 SUMMARY:Due: Sam Altman: Superintelligence could arrive in a few thousand days. DESCRIPTION:Superintelligence could arrive in a few thousand days.\nTarget as stated: in a few thousand days (about 3\,000 days\, read as late 2032 ).\nSource: https://ia.samaltman.com/\nhttps://predictions.fru.dev/predic tions/altman-superintelligence-in-a-few-thousand-days URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/altman-superintelligence-in-a- few-thousand-days TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:ai-2027-superhuman-ai-impact-over-next-decade@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20350403 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20350404 SUMMARY:Due: Daniel Kokotajlo: The impact of superhuman AI over the next d ecade will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution. DESCRIPTION:The impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed t hat of the Industrial Revolution.\nTarget as stated: over the next decade .\nSource: https://ai-2027.com/\nhttps://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/ ai-2027-superhuman-ai-impact-over-next-decade URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/ai-2027-superhuman-ai-impact-o ver-next-decade TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:karpathy-agents-take-a-decade@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20351017 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20351018 SUMMARY:Due: Andrej Karpathy: Making AI agents work like an employee will take about a decade. DESCRIPTION:Making AI agents work like an employee will take about a decad e.\nTarget as stated: about a decade.\nSource: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p /andrej-karpathy\nhttps://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/karpathy-agents -take-a-decade URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/karpathy-agents-take-a-decade TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:cotra-self-sufficient-ai-population-decade@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20360106 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20360107 SUMMARY:Due: Ajeya Cotra: A self-sufficient AI population\, able to surviv e without humans\, is more likely than not within ten years. DESCRIPTION:A self-sufficient AI population\, able to survive without huma ns\, is more likely than not within ten years.\nTarget as stated: more li kely than not within ten years.\nSource: https://www.planned-obsolescence .org/p/self-sufficient-ai\nhttps://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/cotra- self-sufficient-ai-population-decade URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/cotra-self-sufficient-ai-popul ation-decade TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:hassabis-agi-five-to-ten-years@predictions.fru.dev DTSTAMP:20260925T020409Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20360129 DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20360130 SUMMARY:Due: Demis Hassabis: A full AGI system\, including physical intell igence\, is five to ten years away. DESCRIPTION:A full AGI system\, including physical intelligence\, is five to ten years away.\nTarget as stated: five to ten years away.\nSource: ht tps://www.bigtechnology.com/p/google-deepmind-ceo-demis-hassabis-946\nhtt ps://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/hassabis-agi-five-to-ten-years URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/hassabis-agi-five-to-ten-years TRANSP:TRANSPARENT END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR