BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//fru.dev//Predictions//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-WR-CALNAME:Predictions: Coding coming due
X-WR-CALDESC:Target dates of open predictions about data\, AI and tech\, from predictions.fru.dev
X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT12H
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:zuckerberg-most-llama-code-written-by-ai@predictions.fru.dev
DTSTAMP:20260925T025118Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261029
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261030
SUMMARY:Due: Mark Zuckerberg: Within 12 to 18 months\, most of the code fo
 r Meta's Llama efforts will be written by AI.
DESCRIPTION:Within 12 to 18 months\, most of the code for Meta's Llama eff
 orts will be written by AI.\nTarget as stated: sometime in the next 12 to
  18 months.\nSource: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/mark-zuckerberg-2\nhttps:
 //predictions.fru.dev/predictions/zuckerberg-most-llama-code-written-by-a
 i
URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/zuckerberg-most-llama-code-wri
 tten-by-ai
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:cherny-everyone-codes-end-of-2026@predictions.fru.dev
DTSTAMP:20260925T025118Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101
SUMMARY:Due: Boris Cherny: By the end of 2026 everyone will code and the s
 oftware engineer title will start to go away.
DESCRIPTION:By the end of 2026 everyone will code and the software enginee
 r title will start to go away.\nTarget as stated: by the end of the year.
 \nSource: https://fortune.com/2026/02/24/will-claude-destroy-software-eng
 ineer-coding-jobs-creator-says-printing-press/\nhttps://predictions.fru.d
 ev/predictions/cherny-everyone-codes-end-of-2026
URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/cherny-everyone-codes-end-of-2
 026
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:cotra-agents-100-hour-horizon-2026@predictions.fru.dev
DTSTAMP:20260925T025118Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270101
SUMMARY:Due: Ajeya Cotra: AI agents will reach a time horizon of over 100 
 hours on METR-style software tasks by the end of 2026.
DESCRIPTION:AI agents will reach a time horizon of over 100 hours on METR-
 style software tasks by the end of 2026.\nTarget as stated: by the end of
  the year.\nSource: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/i-underestimat
 ed-ai-capabilities\nhttps://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/cotra-agents-
 100-hour-horizon-2026
URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/cotra-agents-100-hour-horizon-
 2026
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:amodei-models-do-software-engineering-12-months@predictions.fru.dev
DTSTAMP:20260925T025118Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270131
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270201
SUMMARY:Due: Dario Amodei: AI models may do most or all of what software e
 ngineers do\, end to end\, within six to 12 months.
DESCRIPTION:AI models may do most or all of what software engineers do\, e
 nd to end\, within six to 12 months.\nTarget as stated: six to 12 months.
 \nSource: https://fortune.com/2026/01/24/anthropic-boris-cherny-claude-co
 de-non-coders-software-engineers/\nhttps://predictions.fru.dev/prediction
 s/amodei-models-do-software-engineering-12-months
URL:https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/amodei-models-do-software-engi
 neering-12-months
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR