# Predictions: dated predictions about data, AI and tech, with outcomes

> 19 public, on-the-record predictions about data, AI and tech by 9 named people and 8 companies, each with the claim, the quote where it was read on the source, when it was made, the target date, the source link, and the outcome: 14 open, 4 due for review, 1 judged. By fru.dev.

Quotes are shown only when the words were read on the linked page; otherwise the source's own words are shown as reported. Predictions with only secondary sources, or found by the weekly search, are marked Unverified. When a target date passes, the prediction is judged came true, missed or partly, with an evidence link and the date judged. Hit rates count judged predictions only (partly counts half). Every judgment and correction is kept in an append-only change log. New predictions: weekly (Mondays 13:15 UTC); outcome review: monthly. Last successful refresh: 2026-09-24 17:06:43 UTC.

Disclaimer: Claims as their authors made them, linked to the source; outcomes are judged against the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

## Pages

- [Latest predictions](https://predictions.fru.dev/)
- [Coming due](https://predictions.fru.dev/coming-due)
- [People, with scorecards](https://predictions.fru.dev/people)
- [Companies, with scorecards](https://predictions.fru.dev/companies)
- [Topics](https://predictions.fru.dev/topics)
- [Changes: outcomes and corrections](https://predictions.fru.dev/changes)
- [Sources and method](https://predictions.fru.dev/method)
- [AGI predictions](https://predictions.fru.dev/topics/agi)
- [Coding predictions](https://predictions.fru.dev/topics/coding)
- [Agents predictions](https://predictions.fru.dev/topics/agents)
- [Jobs predictions](https://predictions.fru.dev/topics/jobs)
- [Science predictions](https://predictions.fru.dev/topics/science)
- [Robotics predictions](https://predictions.fru.dev/topics/robotics)
- [Self-driving predictions](https://predictions.fru.dev/topics/autonomy)
- [Markets predictions](https://predictions.fru.dev/topics/markets)
- [Compute predictions](https://predictions.fru.dev/topics/compute)
- [Data predictions](https://predictions.fru.dev/topics/data)

## Coming due

- 2026-09-30: [OpenAI will have an intern-level AI research assistant by September 2026.](https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/openai-intern-level-research-assistant-september-2026) (Sam Altman)
- 2026-10-29: [Within 12 to 18 months, most of the code for Meta's Llama efforts will be written by AI.](https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/zuckerberg-most-llama-code-written-by-ai) (Mark Zuckerberg)
- 2026-12-31: [Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.](https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/amodei-powerful-ai-as-early-as-2026) (Dario Amodei)
- 2026-12-31: [2026 will likely see AI systems that can figure out novel insights.](https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/altman-systems-that-find-novel-insights-2026) (Sam Altman)
- 2027-03-31: [Powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.](https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/anthropic-powerful-ai-late-2026-early-2027) (Anthropic)
- 2027-12-31: [2027 may see robots that can do tasks in the real world.](https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/altman-real-world-robots-2027) (Sam Altman)
- 2028-12-31: [OpenAI will have a fully automated AI researcher by 2028.](https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/openai-automated-ai-researcher-2028) (Sam Altman)
- 2028-12-31: [There is a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.](https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/legg-50-percent-chance-of-agi-by-2028) (Shane Legg)
- 2029-03-19: [AGI, defined as passing a set of tests better than most people, will arrive within 5 years.](https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/huang-agi-by-tests-within-5-years) (Jensen Huang)
- 2029-12-31: [Computers will reach human-level intelligence by 2029.](https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/kurzweil-human-level-intelligence-by-2029) (Ray Kurzweil)
- 2030-05-28: [AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.](https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/amodei-half-of-entry-level-white-collar-jobs) (Dario Amodei)
- 2032-12-10: [Superintelligence could arrive in a few thousand days.](https://predictions.fru.dev/predictions/altman-superintelligence-in-a-few-thousand-days) (Sam Altman)

## Data

- [Every prediction as plain text](https://predictions.fru.dev/llms-full.txt)
- [Calendar feed of target dates (ICS)](https://predictions.fru.dev/calendar.ics)
- [Sitemap](https://predictions.fru.dev/sitemap.xml)

## API

- [For AI agents: endpoints, tool definition, examples](https://predictions.fru.dev/agents)
- [OpenAPI 3.1](https://predictions.fru.dev/openapi.json)
- https://predictions.fru.dev/api/predictions?status=open&topic=agi : predictions, newest first
- https://predictions.fru.dev/api/predictions/{id} : one prediction with its change history
- https://predictions.fru.dev/api/coming-due : open predictions by target date
- https://predictions.fru.dev/api/people : scorecards by person
- https://predictions.fru.dev/api/companies?since=2026-09-01T00:00:00Z : companies with registry slugs and dated items
- https://predictions.fru.dev/api/changes?since=2026-09-01T00:00:00Z : the change log
- https://predictions.fru.dev/api/search?q=agi : search