Sources and method

What counts

A public, on-the-record claim about data, AI or technology, made by a named person or organization, with a date or time frame attached. Hopes, plans without a date and stock-price calls are left out.

Quotes and summaries

Each prediction has a one-line summary in our words, which is never shown as a quote. A quote appears only when the words were read on the linked page, character for character; [...] marks words left out. When only a report of what someone said was found, the report's own words are shown as reported, and the prediction is marked Unverified.

Target dates

The target is the last day the claim can come true, read from how it was stated: "by 2027" is December 31, 2027; "in the next 12 to 18 months" is 18 months after it was said. The stated wording is always shown next to it.

Outcomes

• Open: the target date has not come.
• Due for review: the target date passed and nobody has judged it yet.
• Came true, Missed or Partly: judged by a person, with a link to the evidence and the date it was judged.

Nothing is judged automatically. Once a month, every prediction past its target is put up for review.

Hit rate

Came true divided by judged predictions, with partly counting as half. Open and due predictions are not counted, so a person with one judged prediction has a rate of 0% or 100%: read it with the counts next to it.

Where new predictions come from

Every Monday and Thursday at 13:15 UTC a refresh reads new posts from a short list of primary sources (blogs and podcast transcripts) and runs two web searches. One model call (Gemini, no web access) reads only the pages fetched and returns the predictions in them; a prediction is kept only if its quote is on the page. Everything found this way is published Unverified until a person checks the source. The outcome review runs on the first Monday of each month.

Each run also adds from free sources: quotes on Quotes (verbatim, checked against their primary source) that carry a time frame become candidates once their words are read on the source page here, and are published Unverified with that sentence as the working summary until a person checks them. One of the two web searches works through the companies in the fru.dev registry, one company a run, so every company there is searched over time. Each run also re-reads the source pages checked least recently; if the words are missing twice in a row, that is logged in Changes and nothing is removed.

Provenance

Every prediction, person and company records where it came from (the organization's own page, a press report, a sibling site, a web search, or added by hand), when it was first and last seen, when its source was last re-read, who verified it, and which run added it. The counts grow over time; weekly snapshots and each run's discovered, added and updated counts are at /api/growth.

New, Hot and Rising

The home page lists the same predictions in three orders. Each uses only what is on file; nothing is estimated, and no view counts clicks or page views.

• New: by the date the prediction was made, newest first.
• Hot: predictions made in the last 60 days, or open and coming due in the next 90. They are ranked by how many different sites carry the prediction: its own source, plus every page the refresh has found with the quote on it, word for word (two pages on one site count once). Ties go to whichever is nearer in days: since it was made, or until it comes due.
• Rising: predictions with more pages quoting them in the last 30 days than in the 30 days before, ranked by the gain. The original source is not counted, only pages found later.

How pages are found: each refresh checks every page it fetches for the quote of every prediction on file, and runs one more web search for the exact words of one quoted prediction (a different one each run, newest first), keeping only result pages that carry those words. A page is dated by the day the refresh found it. Only predictions with a verbatim quote can gain pages, and counting started on September 24, 2026, so Hot mostly orders by days and Rising stays short until pages build up. When a view has nothing, it says so.

History

Every change is logged and never edited: predictions added, outcomes, corrected quotes, dates and sources. See Changes, or the JSON at /api/changes?since=.

People

People appear with their public professional role and no personal details. Photos come from Wikimedia Commons (matched through Wikidata by name and company, never by name alone) or from the company's own leadership page, each credited on the person's page with its license. Where there is no such photo, the person shows as initials. Nothing is copied from LinkedIn, X or image search.

Disclaimer

Predictions from public posts, interviews, company pages and news, found by an agent twice a week and checked by hand; unverified ones are marked. The list grows as new predictions are made, and outcomes are judged by hand against the evidence linked. Not investment advice. Photos from Wikimedia Commons and official company pages, with credit. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners. Anonymous usage stats via Google Analytics. Claims are shown as their authors made them, linked to the source. Use Suggest a correction on any page.