Sources and method

What counts

A public, on-the-record claim about data, AI or technology, made by a named person or organization, with a date or time frame attached. Hopes, plans without a date and stock-price calls are left out.

Quotes and summaries

Each prediction has a one-line summary in our words, which is never shown as a quote. A quote appears only when the words were read on the linked page, character for character; [...] marks words left out. When only a report of what someone said was found, the report's own words are shown as reported, and the prediction is marked Unverified.

Target dates

The target is the last day the claim can come true, read from how it was stated: "by 2027" is December 31, 2027; "in the next 12 to 18 months" is 18 months after it was said. The stated wording is always shown next to it.

Outcomes

• Open: the target date has not come.
• Due for review: the target date passed and nobody has judged it yet.
• Came true, Missed or Partly: judged by a person, with a link to the evidence and the date it was judged.

Nothing is judged automatically. Once a month, every prediction past its target is put up for review.

Hit rate

Came true divided by judged predictions, with partly counting as half. Open and due predictions are not counted, so a person with one judged prediction has a rate of 0% or 100%: read it with the counts next to it.

Where new predictions come from

Every Monday at 13:15 UTC a refresh reads new posts from a short list of primary sources (blogs and podcast transcripts) and runs two web searches. One model call (Gemini, no web access) reads only the pages fetched and returns the predictions in them; a prediction is kept only if its quote is on the page. Everything found this way is published Unverified until a person checks the source.

History

Every change is logged and never edited: predictions added, outcomes, corrected quotes, dates and sources. See Changes, or the JSON at /api/changes?since=.

People

People appear with their public professional role and an initials avatar; no photos and no personal details.

Disclaimer

Claims as their authors made them, linked to the source; outcomes are judged against the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners. Use Suggest a correction on any page.