Who predicted what

178 predictions · 163 still open

People

Dario AmodeiCEO, Anthropic15 predictions · 13 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksSam AltmanCEO, OpenAI8 predictions · 6 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksElon MuskCEO, Tesla7 predictions · 6 open · 1 judged, 0% came truenext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksLeopold AschenbrennerFounder, Situational Awareness LP4 predictions · 4 opennext due Dec 2027 in 1 yearDwarkesh PatelHost, Dwarkesh Podcast3 predictions · 3 opennext due Dec 2028 in 2 yearsGary MarcusProfessor emeritus, New York University3 predictions · 1 opennext due Dec 2027 in 1 yearJack ClarkCo-founder, Anthropic; author of Import AI3 predictions · 3 opennext due May 2028 in 1 yearMark ZuckerbergCEO, Meta3 predictions · 1 opennext due Jul 2031 in 4 yearsAjeya CotraResearcher, METR2 predictions · 2 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksAndrej KarpathyFounder, Eureka Labs2 predictions · 2 opennext due Oct 2035 in 8 yearsAndy JassyCEO, Amazon2 predictions · 2 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksBill McDermottCEO, ServiceNow2 predictions · 2 opennext due Mar 2028 in 1 yearC.C. WeiChairman and CEO, TSMC2 predictions · 2 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksDaniel KokotajloLead author, AI 20272 predictions · 1 opennext due Apr 2035 in 8 yearsDavid CahnPartner, Sequoia Capital2 predictions · 2 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksDemis HassabisCEO, Google DeepMind2 predictions · 2 opennext due Jul 2030 in 3 yearsDylan PatelFounder and CEO, SemiAnalysis2 predictions · 2 opennext due Dec 2027 in 1 yearJensen HuangCEO, Nvidia2 predictions · 2 opennext due Dec 2027 in 1 yearMustafa SuleymanCEO, Microsoft AI2 predictions · 2 opennext due Aug 2027 in 9 monthsPat GelsingerCEO, Intel2 predictions · 0 openSholto DouglasResearcher, Anthropic2 predictions · 2 opennext due Dec 2028 in 2 yearsAnu MadgavkarPartner, McKinsey Global Institute1 prediction · 1 opennext due May 2031 in 4 yearsAzeem AzharFounder, Exponential View1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2030 in 4 yearsBenjamin ToddCo-founder, 80,000 Hours1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2028 in 2 yearsBob SternfelsGlobal Managing Partner, McKinsey1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksBoris ChernyHead of Claude Code, Anthropic1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksCasey HandmerFounder and CEO, Terraform Industries1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2027 in 1 yearChris LehaneChief Global Affairs Officer, OpenAI1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksChris UrmsonCo-founder and CEO, Aurora1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksEge ErdilCo-founder, Mechanize1 prediction · 0 openEric SchmidtFormer CEO, Google1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2030 in 4 yearsFidji SimoCEO of Applications, OpenAI1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksIlya SutskeverCo-founder and CEO, Safe Superintelligence1 prediction · 1 opennext due Nov 2045 in 19 yearsJack DorseyCEO, Block1 prediction · 1 opennext due Feb 2027 in 3 monthsJamie DimonCEO, JPMorgan Chase1 prediction · 1 opennext due Mar 2056 in 29 yearsJohn SchulmanChief Scientist, Thinking Machines Lab1 prediction · 0 openLisa SuChair and CEO, AMD1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2030 in 4 yearsMasayoshi SonFounder, Chairman and CEO, SoftBank Group1 prediction · 1 opennext due Sep 2034 in 7 yearsMatthew PrinceCEO, Cloudflare1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2027 in 1 yearNathan LambertAuthor, Interconnects1 prediction · 1 opennext due Mar 2028 in 1 yearNoam BrownResearcher, OpenAI1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2030 in 4 yearsPat GradyPartner, Sequoia Capital1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeksRay KurzweilAuthor, The Singularity Is Nearer1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2029 in 3 yearsRJ ScaringeCEO, Rivian1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2027 in 1 yearRyan GreenblattChief Scientist, Redwood Research1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2031 in 5 yearsSebastian SiemiatkowskiCEO, Klarna1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2030 in 4 yearsSergey LevineCo-founder, Physical Intelligence1 prediction · 1 opennext due Sep 2030 in 3 yearsShane LeggCo-founder and Chief AGI Scientist, Google DeepMind1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2028 in 2 yearsShawn Wang (swyx)Editor, Latent Space1 prediction · 1 opennext due Jun 2028 in 1 yearSundar PichaiCEO, Google and Alphabet1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2030 in 4 yearsTerence TaoMathematician, UCLA1 prediction · 1 opennext due Mar 2036 in 9 yearsTrenton BrickenResearcher, Anthropic1 prediction · 1 opennext due May 2030 in 3 yearsVinod KhoslaFounder, Khosla Ventures1 prediction · 1 opennext due Nov 2049 in 23 yearsWerner VogelsCTO, Amazon1 prediction · 1 opennext due Nov 2030 in 4 years