People
Everyone with a prediction on file. The hit rate counts judged predictions only; partly counts half.
9 of 9 people
| Person | Made | Hit rate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam AltmanCEO, OpenAI | 6 | 0 | - | Sep 2026in 6 days |
| Dario AmodeiCEO, Anthropic | 4 | 0 | - | Dec 2026in 3 months |
| Mark ZuckerbergCEO, Meta | 2 | 0 | - | Oct 2026in 5 weeks |
| Andrej KarpathyFounder, Eureka Labs | 1 | 0 | - | Oct 2035in 9 years |
| Daniel KokotajloLead author, AI 2027 | 1 | 0 | - | Apr 2035in 9 years |
| Elon MuskCEO, Tesla | 1 | 1 | 0% | - |
| Jensen HuangCEO, Nvidia | 1 | 0 | - | Mar 2029in 2 years |
| Ray KurzweilAuthor, The Singularity Is Nearer | 1 | 0 | - | Dec 2029in 3 years |
| Shane LeggCo-founder and Chief AGI Scientist, Google DeepMind | 1 | 0 | - | Dec 2028in 2 years |
Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.