Predictions about AI, data and tech

A public, on-the-record claim about data, AI or tech with a date attached, made by a named person or organization: "AGI by 2028", "AI will write most of our code in 12 to 18 months". Each one links to where it was said. Quotes appear only when the words were read on the source page; otherwise the source’s own words are shown as reported.

When the target date passes, a prediction is due for review. It is then judged came true, missed or partly, with a link to the evidence and the date it was judged. Until then it stays open. Every judgment and correction is kept in the Changes log.

Came true divided by judged predictions, with partly counting as half. Open predictions and ones still due for review are not counted, so a person with few judged predictions has a rough rate.

Because only a secondary source (a news report) was found, not the person’s own words on a page we could read, or because the weekly search found it and nobody has checked it yet.

The Coming due page lists open predictions by target date, soonest first, and the strip on the home page shows them quarter by quarter.

Every prediction has Suggest a correction, and the lists have Suggest a missing prediction. Please include the source link; each suggestion is checked before anything changes.