Who predicted what

Predictions178Still open163

178 predictions · 163 still open

Coming due

Due for review14
Codingwas due Sep 2025Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Dario Amodei, AnthropicAgentsUnverifiedwas due Dec 2025By the end of 2025 AI computer-use agents will be able to book a flight.Ege Erdil, MechanizeAgentsUnverifiedwas due Dec 2025By the end of 2025 AI agents will stop making basic mouse-click errors in computer use.Daniel Kokotajlo, AI Futures ProjectCodingUnverifiedwas due Dec 2025In 2025 Meta and others will have an AI that can work like a midlevel engineer.Mark Zuckerberg, MetaAgentsAgentswas due Dec 2025In 2025 the first AI agents may join the workforce and materially change the output of companies.Sam Altman, OpenAIRoboticswas due Dec 2025No one will release a humanoid robot remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot in 2025.Gary Marcus, New York UniversityAGIwas due Dec 2025No single AI system will solve more than 4 of the Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025.Gary Marcus, New York UniversityComputewas due Dec 2025Intel will regain process leadership in 2025.Pat Gelsinger, IntelComputewas due Dec 2025Intel will regain transistor performance and power leadership by 2025.Pat Gelsinger, IntelCodingwas due Mar 2026Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.Dario Amodei, AnthropicAgentsUnverifiedwas due May 2026Within one or two years models will do much more involved tasks than today.John Schulman, Thinking Machines LabAgentsUnverifiedwas due Sep 2026OpenAI will have an intern-level AI research assistant by September 2026.Sam Altman, OpenAIScience
Due in 202626
Self-drivingdue Dec 2026Aurora will put hundreds of driverless trucks on the road in 2026.Chris Urmson, AuroraComputedue Dec 2026OpenAI will bring AMD Helios racks online starting in the fourth quarter of 2026.AMDComputedue Dec 2026TSMC revenue will grow slightly more than 40% in 2026, in US dollars.C.C. Wei, TSMCMarketsMarketsUnverifieddue Dec 2026Worldwide AI spending will rise 47% in 2026 to $2.59 trillion.GartnerComputedue Dec 2026AI infrastructure spending will reach $487 billion in 2026, up about 53%.IDCMarketsComputeUnverifieddue Dec 2026Capital spending by five large technology companies will rise another 75% in 2026, from over $400 billion in 2025.International Energy AgencyMarketsAgentsdue Dec 2026AI agents will reach a time horizon of over 100 hours on METR-style software tasks by the end of 2026.Ajeya Cotra, METRCodingCodingUnverifieddue Dec 2026By the end of 2026 everyone will code and the software engineer title will start to go away.Boris Cherny, AnthropicJobsComputedue Dec 2026Amazon will spend about $200 billion on capital expenditures in 2026.Andy Jassy, AmazonMarketsAgentsUnverifieddue Dec 2026Digital human emulation, AI that can do any job done at a computer, will be solved by the end of 2026.Elon Musk, xAIAGISelf-drivingdue Dec 2026Waymo will lay the groundwork for ride-hailing in more than 20 more cities in 2026, including Tokyo and London.WaymoRoboticsUnverifieddue Dec 2026Tesla will not reach significant Optimus production volume until about the end of 2026.Elon Musk, Tesla
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Latest predictions

Agentsmade Sep 2026, due Dec 2028By 2028, 42% of the world's largest companies will have rationalized their entire agent and app portfolio.IDCSelf-drivingmade Sep 23, 2026, due Dec 2030Aurora will have more than 30,000 driverless trucks in operation by 2030.AuroraSelf-drivingmade Sep 22, 2026, due Sep 2028Wayve's AI Driver will reach Mercedes-Benz customers for urban point-to-point driving assistance within two years.WayveComputeUnverifiedmade Sep 17, 2026, due Dec 2030By the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs.Noam Brown, OpenAIAGIComputemade Sep 2026, due Dec 2027At least two countries will turn data-center ratepayer protection into tariffs or equivalent obligations in 2027.ForresterMarketsmade Sep 17, 2026, due Dec 2030Asia/Pacific AI and GenAI spending will grow from $121.5 billion in 2025 to $555.2 billion by 2030.IDCMarketsmade Sep 17, 2026, due Dec 2030European AI spending will reach nearly $470 billion in 2030.IDCMarketsmade Sep 13, 2026, due Dec 2030AI will add about 8.3% to US GDP by 2030.Azeem Azhar, Exponential ViewJobsScienceUnverifiedmade Sep 11, 2026, due Jan 2027The competition for designing a protocol-emulator ASIC will conclude on January 18, 2027.Jane StreetDatamade Sep 10, 2026, due Dec 2027There will be no meaningful relief in memory supply for enterprise storage before 2028.IDCComputeAgentsmade Sep 9, 2026, due Mar 2028Agents will make AI as fundamental as electricity for knowledge work within 18 months.Nathan Lambert, InterconnectsJobsDatamade Sep 2, 2026, due Jan 2027Snowflake product revenue for fiscal 2027 will be about $6.07 billion, up 36%.SnowflakeMarkets
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Judged

Self-drivingMissedjudged Sep 24, 2026Tesla will have more than one million robotaxis on the road the following year.Elon Musk
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Most predictions on file

1Dario Amodei15 predictions152Gartner12 predictions123IDC11 predictions114Sam Altman8 predictions85Elon Musk7 predictions76International Energy Agency6 predictions67Deloitte5 predictions58Epoch AI5 predictions59Forrester5 predictions510Goldman Sachs4 predictions411Leopold Aschenbrenner4 predictions412Dwarkesh Patel3 predictions3