Predictionsby GlyphComing due
Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.
Dario Amodei, Anthropic2026 will likely see AI systems that can figure out novel insights.
Sam Altman, OpenAITesla will not reach significant Optimus production volume until about the end of 2026.
Elon Musk, TeslaWaymo will lay the groundwork for ride-hailing in more than 20 more cities in 2026, including Tokyo and London.
WaymoMotional will launch a commercial driverless robotaxi service in Las Vegas by the end of 2026.
MotionalAurora will put hundreds of driverless trucks on the road in 2026.
Chris Urmson, AuroraOpenAI will announce its first hardware device in the second half of 2026.
Chris Lehane, OpenAIOpenAI will bring AMD Helios racks online starting in the fourth quarter of 2026.
AMDTSMC revenue will grow slightly more than 40% in 2026, in US dollars.
C.C. Wei, TSMCMarketsMcKinsey will have as many personalized AI agents as employees by the end of 2026.
Bob Sternfels, McKinsey & CompanyJobsBy the end of 2026 everyone will code and the software engineer title will start to go away.
Boris Cherny, AnthropicJobsDigital human emulation, AI that can do any job done at a computer, will be solved by the end of 2026.Elon Musk, xAIAGIAI agents will reach a time horizon of over 100 hours on METR-style software tasks by the end of 2026.
Ajeya Cotra, METRCodingAI infrastructure spending will reach $487 billion in 2026, up about 53%.
IDCMarketsA third of CIOs will adopt gig-worker protocols and agents to support multi-job IT employees in 2026.
ForresterJobsInference will account for roughly two-thirds of all AI compute in 2026.
DeloitteThe market for inference-optimized chips will grow to over $50 billion in 2026.DeloitteMarketsUp to half of organizations will put more than 50% of digital transformation budgets toward AI automation in 2026.DeloitteMarketsIn 2026 a club of startups going from $0 to $1 billion in revenue will emerge.
David Cahn, Sequoia CapitalWorldwide AI spending will rise 47% in 2026 to $2.59 trillion.
GartnerCapital spending by five large technology companies will rise another 75% in 2026, from over $400 billion in 2025.
International Energy AgencyMarketsIBM will deliver quantum advantage by the end of 2026.
IBMAmazon will spend about $200 billion on capital expenditures in 2026.
Andy Jassy, AmazonMarketsTSMC capacity could become a material constraint on AI in 2026.David Cahn, Sequoia CapitalIn 2026 ChatGPT will become a personal super-assistant that gets things done.
Fidji Simo, OpenAI2026 will be the year of long-horizon agents, which are functionally AGI.Pat Grady, Sequoia CapitalAGIThe competition for designing a protocol-emulator ASIC will conclude on January 18, 2027.
Jane StreetSnowflake product revenue for fiscal 2027 will be about $6.07 billion, up 36%.
SnowflakeMarketsAI models may do most or all of what software engineers do, end to end, within six to 12 months.Dario Amodei, AnthropicJobsMost companies will make similar AI-driven structural job cuts within a year.
Jack Dorsey, Block
Due for review
Within 12 to 18 months, most of the code for Meta's Llama efforts will be written by AI.
Mark Zuckerberg, MetaNvidia revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2027 will be about $108 billion, plus or minus 2%.
NvidiaMarketsOpenAI will have an intern-level AI research assistant by September 2026.Sam Altman, OpenAIScienceWithin one or two years models will do much more involved tasks than today.
John Schulman, Thinking Machines LabWithin twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.Dario Amodei, AnthropicIntel will regain process leadership in 2025.
Pat Gelsinger, IntelIntel will regain transistor performance and power leadership by 2025.Pat Gelsinger, IntelNo one will release a humanoid robot remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot in 2025.
Gary Marcus, New York UniversityNo single AI system will solve more than 4 of the Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025.Gary Marcus, New York UniversityBy the end of 2025 AI agents will stop making basic mouse-click errors in computer use.
Daniel Kokotajlo, AI Futures ProjectBy the end of 2025 AI computer-use agents will be able to book a flight.
Ege Erdil, MechanizeIn 2025 Meta and others will have an AI that can work like a midlevel engineer.Mark Zuckerberg, MetaAgentsIn 2025 the first AI agents may join the workforce and materially change the output of companies.Sam Altman, OpenAIWithin three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Dario Amodei, Anthropic