Predictionsby GlyphChanges
Models equal to a country of geniuses in a data center could exist within one to two years.Dario Amodei. And 157 more from Elon Musk, Leopold Aschenbrenner, Jack Clark and others.
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- Quantum computers able to break RSA and ECC encryption are plausible within about five years.Werner Vogels
- There could be a billion bipedal robots within 25 years.Vinod Khosla
- AI Engineer jobs will outnumber ML Engineer jobs within five years.Shawn Wang (swyx)
- 2026 will be the year of long-horizon agents, which are functionally AGI.Pat Grady
- Intel will regain process leadership in 2025.Pat Gelsinger
- Intel will regain transistor performance and power leadership by 2025.Pat Gelsinger
- Agents will make AI as fundamental as electricity for knowledge work within 18 months.Nathan Lambert
- ASI ten thousand times smarter than humans will be realised in about ten years.Masayoshi Son
- Superintelligence will exist by 2030.Leopold Aschenbrenner
- Within one or two years models will do much more involved tasks than today.John Schulman
- AI-run asteroid mining corporations may appear by 2033.Jack Clark
- A new class of technology (AI that builds AI) could arrive within two years.Jack Clark
- In 2026 ChatGPT will become a personal super-assistant that gets things done.Fidji Simo
- China will make compelling AI chips within three or four years.Elon Musk
- Within five years more AI compute will be launched to space each year than exists on Earth in total.Elon Musk
- Within 36 months space will be the most economically compelling place to run AI.Elon Musk
- TSMC capacity could become a material constraint on AI in 2026.David Cahn
- Models equal to a country of geniuses in a data center could exist within one to two years.Dario Amodei
- AI will reach the level of top coders within one or two years.Dario Amodei
- A "country of geniuses in a data center" will exist within ten years (90% confidence).Dario Amodei
- Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.Dario Amodei
- AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.Dario Amodei
- AI will add about 8.3% to US GDP by 2030.Azeem Azhar
- Amazon will spend about $200 billion on capital expenditures in 2026.Andy Jassy
- A billion-parameter model will hold a very productive conversation within 20 years.Andrej Karpathy
- US data centers will need 29 GW of extra power by 2027 and 67 GW more by 2030.Eric Schmidt
- IBM will build the first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029.
- IBM will deliver quantum advantage by the end of 2026.
- By 2028 AI models could have beyond-human reasoning and complete multi-week projects autonomously.Benjamin Todd
- No one will release a humanoid robot remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot in 2025.Gary Marcus
- No single AI system will solve more than 4 of the Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025.Gary Marcus
- AGI will not arrive in 2026 or 2027.Gary Marcus
- Medical superintelligence will arrive in the next few years.Mustafa Suleyman
- Within five years AI systems will materially help solve problems like fusion, superconductors and better batteries.Demis Hassabis
- AGI will arrive slightly after 2030, just missing that date, though progress by 2030 will be dramatic.Sundar Pichai
- By 2035 anyone will command intellectual capacity equal to everyone alive in 2025.Sam Altman
- In the 2030s intelligence and energy will become wildly abundant.Sam Altman
- By 2027 the majority of new data centers breaking ground will be mostly solar powered.Casey Handmer
- By the end of 2025 AI agents will stop making basic mouse-click errors in computer use.Daniel Kokotajlo
- There is a 90% chance of a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years, by 2035.Dario Amodei
- By the end of 2025 AI computer-use agents will be able to book a flight.Ege Erdil
- Robots able to fully autonomously run a household are about five years away (median).Sergey Levine
- An AI that learns as well as a human, and so becomes superhuman, will arrive in 5 to 20 years.Ilya Sutskever
- White-collar job tasks will be automated within five years even if AI progress stalls.Trenton Bricken
- The world will have 100 million H100-equivalent chips by 2028, up from 10 million.Sholto Douglas
- A drop-in AI white-collar worker will arrive within five years, very likely within two.Sholto Douglas
- China will have 30 gigawatts of AI compute or less in 2028.Dylan Patel
- By the end of 2027 half of the world's incremental new compute will go to Anthropic and OpenAI.Dylan Patel
- By 2030 labs will have made real progress on continual learning and models will earn hundreds of billions, without automating all knowledge work.Dwarkesh Patel
- AI will learn on the job as well as a human, for example a video editor after six months, by 2032 (50/50 bet).Dwarkesh Patel
- AI will do a small business's taxes end to end as well as a competent manager by 2028 (50/50 bet).Dwarkesh Patel
- AI will reduce Amazon's total corporate workforce in the next few years.Andy Jassy
- By the end of the decade individual AI training clusters will cost $1 trillion or more.Leopold Aschenbrenner
- Total AI investment could exceed $1 trillion a year by 2027.Leopold Aschenbrenner
- By 2027 AI models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher or engineer.Leopold Aschenbrenner
- Adoption of highly automated processes in manufacturing will nearly triple by 2030.
- AI infrastructure spending will grow from $500 billion to $1.4 trillion in 2030.
- Data centers will need $6.7 trillion of investment worldwide by 2030, $5.2 trillion of it for AI.
- The US faces a 38-gigawatt data center power shortfall between 2026 and 2028.
- AI spending could reach $1.4 trillion in 2028.
- Data center power demand will rise 160 to 165% by 2030 from 2023 levels.
- AI could displace about 6-7% of workers, up to 300 million jobs worldwide, over the next decade.
- Global AI investment will rise to 1.4% of world GDP in 2028.
- 6.5 million humanoid robots will be shipped globally by 2035.
- US data centre electricity demand will rise 130% by 2030.
- Data centres could host 20 to 25 gigawatts of battery storage globally by 2030.
- Data centre emissions will double to about 350 million tonnes by 2035.
- Capital spending by five large technology companies will rise another 75% in 2026, from over $400 billion in 2025.
- Data centre electricity use will double by 2030, with AI-focused data centres tripling.
- Global data centre electricity demand will more than double to about 945 TWh by 2030.
- Over 40% of agentic AI projects will be cancelled by the end of 2027.
- More than one in ten enterprises will be AI-first by 2030.
- AI coding will cost more than an average developer's salary by 2028 as token prices rise.
- 60% of organizations will run smaller software engineering teams by 2029, up from 15% in 2026.
- Half of organizations planning to sharply cut contact center headcount due to AI will drop those plans by 2027.
- Worldwide AI spending will rise 47% in 2026 to $2.59 trillion.
- 35% of point-product SaaS tools will be replaced by AI agents or absorbed into agent ecosystems by 2030.
- 35% of countries will be locked into region-specific AI platforms by 2027.
- 75% of hiring processes will test AI proficiency by 2027.
- AI agents will intermediate more than $15 trillion of B2B spending by 2028.
- By 2027 AI-optimized servers will use more power than conventional servers.
- Data center electricity consumption will pass 1,200 TWh by 2030, beyond what grid supply can meet.
- In 2026 a club of startups going from $0 to $1 billion in revenue will emerge.David Cahn
- Training runs of about 2e29 FLOP will be feasible by 2030, a GPT-2 to GPT-4 sized jump beyond GPT-4.
- Few if any drugs approved for sale by 2030 will have benefited from today's AI tools.
- Existing biology protocol question-answering benchmarks will be solved by 2030.
- By 2030 AI will autonomously fix issues, implement features and solve hard, well-defined scientific programming problems.
- Clusters used to train frontier AI will cost over $100 billion by 2030.
- 194 gigawatts of data centers will be online in the US by 2035.
- Installed US data center capacity will reach 118 gigawatts in 2030.
- Global AI compute requirements could reach 200 gigawatts by 2030, 100 gigawatts in the US.
- Up to half of organizations will put more than 50% of digital transformation budgets toward AI automation in 2026.
- With better orchestration the agentic AI market could reach $45 billion in 2030.
- AI could push annual industrial robot sales past one million units and $20 billion by 2030.
- The market for inference-optimized chips will grow to over $50 billion in 2026.
- Inference will account for roughly two-thirds of all AI compute in 2026.
- Enterprises will defer 25% of their planned 2026 AI spending until 2027.
- A third of CIOs will adopt gig-worker protocols and agents to support multi-job IT employees in 2026.
- At least two countries will turn data-center ratepayer protection into tariffs or equivalent obligations in 2027.
- AI will cause 49% of current customer service jobs to disappear by 2030.
- By 2028, 42% of the world's largest companies will have rationalized their entire agent and app portfolio.
- Agentic AI will exceed 26% of worldwide IT spending, about $1.3 trillion, in 2029.
- AI infrastructure spending will reach $487 billion in 2026, up about 53%.
- The global AI infrastructure market will pass $1 trillion by 2029.
- Companies without AI-ready data will suffer a 15% productivity loss by 2027.
- Agentic automation will enhance more than 40% of enterprise applications by 2027.
- Agent use at the world's 2,000 largest companies will rise tenfold by 2027, with token and API loads up a thousandfold.
- More than one billion AI agents will be actively deployed worldwide by 2029.
- A self-sufficient AI population, able to survive without humans, is more likely than not within ten years.Ajeya Cotra
- AI agents will reach a time horizon of over 100 hours on METR-style software tasks by the end of 2026.Ajeya Cotra
- There is about a 60% chance of automated AI R&D, a model training its own successor, by the end of 2028.Jack Clark
- AI research and development will be fully automated around 2030 to 2031.Ryan Greenblatt
- Within a decade AI will be able to do much of the work math students now do.Terence Tao
- By the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs.Noam Brown
- A full AGI system, including physical intelligence, is five to ten years away.Demis Hassabis
- Digital human emulation, AI that can do any job done at a computer, will be solved by the end of 2026.Elon Musk
- AI will exceed the combined intelligence of all humans in about five or six years.Elon Musk
- AI could cure most major diseases within the next five to ten years.Dario Amodei
- Powerful AI, a "country of geniuses in a data center", will arrive in 2026, or 2027 at the latest.Dario Amodei
- AI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomously builds its own next generation.Dario Amodei
- AI will bring a three and a half day workweek within 30 years.Jamie Dimon
- 30% to 50% of work hours and activities could be transformed by AI within three to five years.Anu Madgavkar
- By the end of 2026 everyone will code and the software engineer title will start to go away.Boris Cherny
- Klarna's workforce will fall from about 3,000 to fewer than 2,000 by 2030, through attrition.Sebastian Siemiatkowski
- About three billion digital agents will be added to enterprises by 2030.Bill McDermott
- Unemployment among new college graduates could reach the mid-30s percent within a couple of years.Bill McDermott
- McKinsey will have as many personalized AI agents as employees by the end of 2026.Bob Sternfels
- Most companies will make similar AI-driven structural job cuts within a year.Jack Dorsey
- Bot traffic online will exceed human traffic in 2027.Matthew Prince
- Within five years billions of people will have a personal AI agent working for them around the clock.Mark Zuckerberg
- AI will account for about 6% of US job losses, around 10.4 million roles, by 2030.
- Most white-collar tasks done at a computer will be fully automated by AI within 12 to 18 months.Mustafa Suleyman
- AI models may do most or all of what software engineers do, end to end, within six to 12 months.Dario Amodei
- AI will disrupt half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.Dario Amodei
- Snowflake product revenue for fiscal 2027 will be about $6.07 billion, up 36%.
- Demand for AI chips will stay very strong through about 2029 or 2030.C.C. Wei
- TSMC revenue will grow slightly more than 40% in 2026, in US dollars.C.C. Wei
- Anthropic will start deploying its first gigawatt of AMD MI450 GPUs in the first half of 2027.
- OpenAI will bring AMD Helios racks online starting in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- AI demand will lift AMD's total addressable market to about $2 trillion in 2030.Lisa Su
- Nvidia will make at least $1 trillion in revenue from 2025 through 2027.Jensen Huang
- Nvidia revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2027 will be about $108 billion, plus or minus 2%.
- There will be no meaningful relief in memory supply for enterprise storage before 2028.
- Asia/Pacific AI and GenAI spending will grow from $121.5 billion in 2025 to $555.2 billion by 2030.
- European AI spending will reach nearly $470 billion in 2030.
- OpenAI will announce its first hardware device in the second half of 2026.Chris Lehane
- Hyundai will deploy Boston Dynamics Atlas humanoids for tasks like parts sequencing by 2028.
- Wayve's AI Driver will reach Mercedes-Benz customers for urban point-to-point driving assistance within two years.
- Aurora will have more than 30,000 driverless trucks in operation by 2030.
- Aurora will put hundreds of driverless trucks on the road in 2026.Chris Urmson
- 1X will scale NEO humanoid production toward more than 100,000 a year by the end of 2027.
- Uber and Nvidia robotaxis will launch in Los Angeles and San Francisco in the first half of 2027 and reach 28 cities by 2028.
- Uber and Rivian robotaxis will run in 25 cities in the US, Canada and Europe by the end of 2031.
- Rivian will reach hands-off, eyes-off driving in 2027.RJ Scaringe
- Motional will launch a commercial driverless robotaxi service in Las Vegas by the end of 2026.
- Waymo will lay the groundwork for ride-hailing in more than 20 more cities in 2026, including Tokyo and London.
- External sales of Tesla Optimus robots could start as early as the second half of 2027.
- Tesla will not reach significant Optimus production volume until about the end of 2026.Elon Musk
Tesla will have more than one million robotaxis on the road the following year.Outcome: Open to Missed. Tesla's robotaxi service began as a limited service in Austin, Texas, on June 22, 2025; there were no robotaxis on the road in 2020.Elon MuskSource
OpenAI will have a fully automated AI researcher by 2028.Sam Altman. And 18 more from Dario Amodei, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk and others.
Show all 19
- Tesla will have more than one million robotaxis on the road the following year.Elon Musk
- The impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution.Daniel Kokotajlo
- Computers will reach human-level intelligence by 2029.Ray Kurzweil
- Making AI agents work like an employee will take about a decade.Andrej Karpathy
- There is a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.Shane Legg
- AGI, defined as passing a set of tests better than most people, will arrive within 5 years.Jensen Huang
- Within 12 to 18 months, most of the code for Meta's Llama efforts will be written by AI.Mark Zuckerberg
- In 2025 Meta and others will have an AI that can work like a midlevel engineer.Mark Zuckerberg
- OpenAI will have a fully automated AI researcher by 2028.Sam Altman
- OpenAI will have an intern-level AI research assistant by September 2026.Sam Altman
- 2027 may see robots that can do tasks in the real world.Sam Altman
- 2026 will likely see AI systems that can figure out novel insights.Sam Altman
- In 2025 the first AI agents may join the workforce and materially change the output of companies.Sam Altman
- Superintelligence could arrive in a few thousand days.Sam Altman
- AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Dario Amodei
- Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.Dario Amodei
- Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Dario Amodei
- Powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.
- Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.Dario Amodei
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