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Every change, newest first: predictions added, outcomes judged with evidence, corrected quotes, dates and sources. Rows are never edited.

20 of 20 changes

DatePrediction
Sep 24, 2026Tesla will have more than one million robotaxis on the road the following year.Elon Musk · Outcome: Open to Missed. Tesla's robotaxi service began as a limited service in Austin, Texas, on June 22, 2025; there were no robotaxis on the road in 2020.
Sep 24, 2026Tesla will have more than one million robotaxis on the road the following year.Elon Musk · Added
Sep 24, 2026The impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution.Daniel Kokotajlo · Added
Sep 24, 2026Computers will reach human-level intelligence by 2029.Ray Kurzweil · Added
Sep 24, 2026Making AI agents work like an employee will take about a decade.Andrej Karpathy · Added
Sep 24, 2026There is a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.Shane Legg · Added
Sep 24, 2026AGI, defined as passing a set of tests better than most people, will arrive within 5 years.Jensen Huang · Added
Sep 24, 2026Within 12 to 18 months, most of the code for Meta's Llama efforts will be written by AI.Mark Zuckerberg · Added
Sep 24, 2026In 2025 Meta and others will have an AI that can work like a midlevel engineer.Mark Zuckerberg · Added
Sep 24, 2026OpenAI will have a fully automated AI researcher by 2028.Sam Altman · Added
Sep 24, 2026OpenAI will have an intern-level AI research assistant by September 2026.Sam Altman · Added
Sep 24, 20262027 may see robots that can do tasks in the real world.Sam Altman · Added
Sep 24, 20262026 will likely see AI systems that can figure out novel insights.Sam Altman · Added
Sep 24, 2026In 2025 the first AI agents may join the workforce and materially change the output of companies.Sam Altman · Added
Sep 24, 2026Superintelligence could arrive in a few thousand days.Sam Altman · Added
Sep 24, 2026AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Dario Amodei · Added
Sep 24, 2026Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.Dario Amodei · Added
Sep 24, 2026Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Dario Amodei · Added
Sep 24, 2026Powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.Added
Sep 24, 2026Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.Dario Amodei · Added

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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

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