Epoch AI predictions and outcomes
epoch.ai
5 predictions · 5 open · 0 due · none judged yet
Predictions from Epoch AI
5 of 5 predictions, newest first
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2025 | By 2030 AI will autonomously fix issues, implement features and solve hard, well-defined scientific programming problems.Open · Epoch AI · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by 2030 | Coding | Open |
| September 2025 | Existing biology protocol question-answering benchmarks will be solved by 2030.Open · Epoch AI · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by 2030 | Science | Open |
| September 2025 | Few if any drugs approved for sale by 2030 will have benefited from today's AI tools.Open · Epoch AI · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by 2030 | Science | Open |
| September 2025 | Clusters used to train frontier AI will cost over $100 billion by 2030.Open · Epoch AI · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by 2030 | Compute | Open |
| August 2024 | Training runs of about 2e29 FLOP will be feasible by 2030, a GPT-2 to GPT-4 sized jump beyond GPT-4.Open · Epoch AI · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by the end of this decade | Compute | Open |
Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.