Training runs of about 2e29 FLOP will be feasible by 2030, a GPT-2 to GPT-4 sized jump beyond GPT-4.
Epoch AI · made August 2024 · target Dec 2030 · Open
We find that training runs of 2e29 FLOP will likely be feasible by the end of this decade.
The prediction
- Who
- Epoch AI
- Made
- August 2024
- Target
- Dec 31, 2030 (stated as "by the end of this decade")
- Status
- Openin 4 years
- Source
- Can AI scaling continue through 2030? (Epoch AI) Primary: their own words
- Topics
- Compute
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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.