Few if any drugs approved for sale by 2030 will have benefited from today's AI tools.
Epoch AI · made September 2025 · target Dec 2030 · Open
we expect that few if any of the drugs approved for sale by 2030 will have benefited from today's AI tools, let alone those of 2030.
The prediction
- Who
- Epoch AI
- Made
- September 2025
- Target
- Dec 31, 2030 (stated as "by 2030")
- Status
- Openin 4 years
- Source
- What will AI look like in 2030? (Epoch AI report) Primary: their own words
- Topics
- Science
More from Epoch AI
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2025 | By 2030 AI will autonomously fix issues, implement features and solve hard, well-defined scientific programming problems.Open · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by 2030 | Coding | Open |
| September 2025 | Existing biology protocol question-answering benchmarks will be solved by 2030.Open · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by 2030 | Science | Open |
| September 2025 | Clusters used to train frontier AI will cost over $100 billion by 2030.Open · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by 2030 | Compute | Open |
| August 2024 | Training runs of about 2e29 FLOP will be feasible by 2030, a GPT-2 to GPT-4 sized jump beyond GPT-4.Open · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by the end of this decade | Compute | Open |
Related predictions
Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.