Leopold Aschenbrenner predictions and outcomes
Founder, Situational Awareness LP
4 predictions · 4 open · 0 due · none judged yet
Leopold Aschenbrenner's predictions
4 of 4 predictions, newest first
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Total AI investment could exceed $1 trillion a year by 2027.Open · target Dec 2027 | Dec 2027by 2027 | Compute | Open |
| June 2024 | By 2027 AI models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher or engineer.Open · target Dec 2027 | Dec 2027by 2027 | AGI | Open |
| Jun 4, 2024 | Superintelligence will exist by 2030.Open · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by 2030 | AGI | Open |
| June 2024 | By the end of the decade individual AI training clusters will cost $1 trillion or more.Open · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by the end of the decade | Compute | Open |
Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.