Who predicted what

Predictions178Still open163

178 predictions · 163 still open

Leopold Aschenbrenner predictions and outcomes

Founder, Situational Awareness LP · 4 predictions · 4 open · none judged yet

Situational Awareness LP
Computemade Jun 2024, due Dec 2027Total AI investment could exceed $1 trillion a year by 2027.AGImade Jun 2024, due Dec 2027By 2027 AI models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher or engineer.AGImade Jun 4, 2024, due Dec 2030Superintelligence will exist by 2030.Computemade Jun 2024, due Dec 2030By the end of the decade individual AI training clusters will cost $1 trillion or more.