Superintelligence will exist by 2030.
Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness LP · made Jun 4, 2024 · target Dec 2030 · Open
By 28/29 the intelligence explosion will be underway; by 2030, we will have summoned superintelligence, in all its power and might.
The prediction
- Who
- Leopold Aschenbrenner, Founder, Situational Awareness LP
- Made
- Jun 4, 2024
- Target
- Dec 31, 2030 (stated as "by 2030")
- Status
- Openin 4 years
- Source
- Situational Awareness IV: The Project Primary: their own words · original recording
- Topics
- AGI
More from Leopold Aschenbrenner
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Total AI investment could exceed $1 trillion a year by 2027.Open · target Dec 2027 | Dec 2027by 2027 | Compute | Open |
| June 2024 | By 2027 AI models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher or engineer.Open · target Dec 2027 | Dec 2027by 2027 | AGI | Open |
| June 2024 | By the end of the decade individual AI training clusters will cost $1 trillion or more.Open · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by the end of the decade | Compute | Open |
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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.