By the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs.
Noam Brown, OpenAI · made Sep 17, 2026 · target Dec 2030 · Open
Unverified Only a secondary source was found; the original words were not read on a page.
So you could have a situation where each of the labs, by the end of 2030 [...] has enough compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level intelligences, based on what the capabilities will be at that point.
The prediction
- Who
- Noam Brown, Researcher, OpenAI
- Made
- Sep 17, 2026
- Target
- Dec 31, 2030 (stated as "by the end of 2030")
- Status
- Openin 4 years
- Source
- Dwarkesh Podcast: Noam Brown, Agent swarms, alignment, and recursive self-improvement Secondary: a report of what they said
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