Predictionsby GlyphAGI predictions
When AI matches or beats people across most work: AGI, powerful AI, superintelligence.
By the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs.
Noam Brown, OpenAIAGIAI-run asteroid mining corporations may appear by 2033.
Jack Clark, AnthropicAI research and development will be fully automated around 2030 to 2031.
Ryan Greenblatt, Redwood ResearchAgentsA new class of technology (AI that builds AI) could arrive within two years.Jack Clark, AnthropicThere is about a 60% chance of automated AI R&D, a model training its own successor, by the end of 2028.Jack Clark, AnthropicAgentsMost white-collar tasks done at a computer will be fully automated by AI within 12 to 18 months.
Mustafa Suleyman, MicrosoftAGIA "country of geniuses in a data center" will exist within ten years (90% confidence).
Dario Amodei, AnthropicPowerful AI, a "country of geniuses in a data center", will arrive in 2026, or 2027 at the latest.Dario Amodei, AnthropicThere is a 90% chance of a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years, by 2035.Dario Amodei, AnthropicModels equal to a country of geniuses in a data center could exist within one to two years.Dario Amodei, AnthropicAI will exceed the combined intelligence of all humans in about five or six years.
Elon Musk, xAIDigital human emulation, AI that can do any job done at a computer, will be solved by the end of 2026.Elon Musk, xAIAGIA full AGI system, including physical intelligence, is five to ten years away.
Demis Hassabis, DeepMind2026 will be the year of long-horizon agents, which are functionally AGI.
Pat Grady, Sequoia CapitalAGIA self-sufficient AI population, able to survive without humans, is more likely than not within ten years.
Ajeya Cotra, METRAI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomously builds its own next generation.Dario Amodei, AnthropicAgentsAGI will not arrive in 2026 or 2027.
Gary Marcus, New York UniversityBy 2030 labs will have made real progress on continual learning and models will earn hundreds of billions, without automating all knowledge work.
Dwarkesh Patel, Dwarkesh PodcastMarketsAn AI that learns as well as a human, and so becomes superhuman, will arrive in 5 to 20 years.
Ilya Sutskever, Safe SuperintelligenceMedical superintelligence will arrive in the next few years.Mustafa Suleyman, MicrosoftAGIA billion-parameter model will hold a very productive conversation within 20 years.
Andrej Karpathy, Eureka LabsMaking AI agents work like an employee will take about a decade.Andrej Karpathy, Eureka LabsAGIIn the 2030s intelligence and energy will become wildly abundant.
Sam Altman, OpenAIComputeAGI will arrive slightly after 2030, just missing that date, though progress by 2030 will be dramatic.
Sundar Pichai, GoogleAI will learn on the job as well as a human, for example a video editor after six months, by 2032 (50/50 bet).Dwarkesh Patel, Dwarkesh PodcastAgentsThe impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution.
Daniel Kokotajlo, AI Futures ProjectPowerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.AnthropicBy 2028 AI models could have beyond-human reasoning and complete multi-week projects autonomously.
Benjamin Todd, 80,000 HoursAgentsBy 2035 anyone will command intellectual capacity equal to everyone alive in 2025.Sam Altman, OpenAIAI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.Dario Amodei, AnthropicNo single AI system will solve more than 4 of the Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025.Gary Marcus, New York UniversityPowerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.Dario Amodei, AnthropicSuperintelligence could arrive in a few thousand days.Sam Altman, OpenAIASI ten thousand times smarter than humans will be realised in about ten years.
Masayoshi Son, SoftBank GroupBy 2027 AI models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher or engineer.
Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness LPCodingSuperintelligence will exist by 2030.Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness LPAGI, defined as passing a set of tests better than most people, will arrive within 5 years.
Jensen Huang, NvidiaThere is a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.
Shane Legg, DeepMindComputers will reach human-level intelligence by 2029.
Ray Kurzweil