AGI predictions

8 predictions, the next due Dec 2026. When AI matches or beats people across most work: AGI, powerful AI, superintelligence.

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8 of 8 predictions, newest first

Made	Prediction	Target	Topic	Status
Oct 17, 2025	Making AI agents work like an employee will take about a decade.Open · Andrej Karpathy, Eureka Labs · target Oct 2035	Oct 2035about a decade	Agents	Open
Apr 3, 2025	The impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution.Open · Daniel Kokotajlo, AI Futures Project · target Apr 2035	Apr 2035over the next decade	AGI	Open
Mar 6, 2025	Powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.Open · Anthropic · target Mar 2027	Mar 2027late 2026 or early 2027	AGI	Open
October 2024	Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.Open · Dario Amodei, Anthropic · target Dec 2026	Dec 2026as early as 2026	AGI	Open
Sep 23, 2024	Superintelligence could arrive in a few thousand days.Open · Sam Altman, OpenAI · target Dec 2032	Dec 2032in a few thousand days (about 3,000 days, read as late 2032)	AGI	Open
Mar 19, 2024	AGI, defined as passing a set of tests better than most people, will arrive within 5 years.Open · Unverified · Jensen Huang, Nvidia · target Mar 2029	Mar 2029within 5 years	AGI	Open
Oct 26, 2023	There is a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.Open · Shane Legg, DeepMind · target Dec 2028	Dec 2028by 2028 (50% chance)	AGI	Open
2005 (The Singularity Is Near)	Computers will reach human-level intelligence by 2029.Open · Unverified · Ray Kurzweil · target Dec 2029	Dec 2029by 2029	AGI	Open

Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

AGI predictions

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