China will have 30 gigawatts of AI compute or less in 2028.
Dylan Patel, SemiAnalysis · made August 2026 · target Dec 2028 · Open
Unverified Only a secondary source was found; the original words were not read on a page.
But it's pretty easy to say China will have 30 gigawatts of AI compute or less.
The prediction
- Who
- Dylan Patel, Founder and CEO, SemiAnalysis
- Made
- August 2026
- Target
- Dec 31, 2028 (stated as "in 2028")
- Status
- Openin 2 years
- Source
- Dylan Patel: Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world's compute by 2028 (Dwarkesh Podcast transcript) Secondary: a report of what they said
- Topics
- Compute
More from Dylan Patel
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | By the end of 2027 half of the world's incremental new compute will go to Anthropic and OpenAI.Open · Unverified · target Dec 2027 | Dec 2027by the end of next year | Compute | Open |
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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.