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TSMC capacity could become a material constraint on AI in 2026.

David Cahn, Sequoia Capital · made Dec 3, 2025 · target Dec 2026 · Open

My prediction, especially coming off of the successful Gemini 3 launch and hype around TPUs, is that the TSMC constraint could become material in 2026.
David Cahn, AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs

The prediction

Who
David Cahn, Partner, Sequoia Capital
Made
Dec 3, 2025
Target
Dec 31, 2026 (stated as "in 2026")
Status
Openin 3 months
Source
AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs Primary: their own words · original recording
Topics
Compute

More from David Cahn

Prediction
In 2026 a club of startups going from $0 to $1 billion in revenue will emerge.Open · target Dec 2026

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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

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