Predictionsby GlyphTSMC capacity could become a material constraint on AI in 2026.
David Cahn, Sequoia Capital
My prediction, especially coming off of the successful Gemini 3 launch and hype around TPUs, is that the TSMC constraint could become material in 2026.
- Who
- David Cahn, Partner, Sequoia Capital
- Made
- Dec 3, 2025 11 months ago
- Target
- Dec 31, 2026 in 7 weeks (stated as "in 2026")
- Status
- Openin 7 weeks
- Source
- AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs Primary: their own words · original recording
- Topics
- Compute
More from David Cahn
Related predictions
By the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs.
Noam Brown, OpenAIAGIAt least two countries will turn data-center ratepayer protection into tariffs or equivalent obligations in 2027.
ForresterThere will be no meaningful relief in memory supply for enterprise storage before 2028.
IDCComputeNvidia revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2027 will be about $108 billion, plus or minus 2%.
NvidiaMarketsChina will have 30 gigawatts of AI compute or less in 2028.
Dylan Patel, SemiAnalysisBy the end of 2027 half of the world's incremental new compute will go to Anthropic and OpenAI.Dylan Patel, SemiAnalysis