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Quantum computers able to break RSA and ECC encryption are plausible within about five years.

Werner Vogels, Amazon · made Nov 25, 2025 · target Nov 2030 · Open

It’s plausible that in about five years, there will be quantum computers capable of breaking the RSA and ECC encryption that secures the vast majority of internet communications, financial transactions, and your sensitive personal data.
Werner Vogels, Tech predictions for 2026 and beyond

The prediction

Who
Werner Vogels, CTO, Amazon
Made
Nov 25, 2025
Target
Nov 25, 2030 (stated as "in about five years")
Status
Openin 4 years
Source
Tech predictions for 2026 and beyond Primary: their own words · original recording
Topics
Compute

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Links
Amazon on Companies (companies.fru.dev)

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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

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