Who predicted what

Predictions178Still open163

178 predictions · 163 still open

METR predictions and outcomes

metr.org · 1 person · 2 predictions · 2 open · none judged yet

Website
Agentsmade Mar 5, 2026, due Dec 2026AI agents will reach a time horizon of over 100 hours on METR-style software tasks by the end of 2026.Ajeya Cotra, METRCodingAGImade Jan 6, 2026, due Jan 2036A self-sufficient AI population, able to survive without humans, is more likely than not within ten years.Ajeya Cotra, METR
People and links
Ajeya CotraResearcher, METR2 predictions · 2 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7 weeks
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