METR predictions and outcomes
metr.org · 1 person
2 predictions · 2 open · 0 due · none judged yet
Predictions from METR
2 of 2 predictions, newest first
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | AI agents will reach a time horizon of over 100 hours on METR-style software tasks by the end of 2026.Open · Ajeya Cotra, METR · target Dec 2026 | Dec 2026by the end of the year | Agents | Open |
| Jan 6, 2026 | A self-sufficient AI population, able to survive without humans, is more likely than not within ten years.Open · Ajeya Cotra, METR · target Jan 2036 | Jan 2036more likely than not within ten years | AGI | Open |
People and links
| Person | Made | Hit rate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajeya CotraResearcher, METR | 2 | 0 | - | Dec 2026in 3 months |
Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.