Ajeya Cotra predictions and outcomes
Researcher, METR
2 predictions · 2 open · 0 due · none judged yet
Ajeya Cotra's predictions
2 of 2 predictions, newest first
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | AI agents will reach a time horizon of over 100 hours on METR-style software tasks by the end of 2026.Open · target Dec 2026 | Dec 2026by the end of the year | Agents | Open |
| Jan 6, 2026 | A self-sufficient AI population, able to survive without humans, is more likely than not within ten years.Open · target Jan 2036 | Jan 2036more likely than not within ten years | AGI | Open |
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