Who predicted what

Predictions178Still open163

178 predictions · 163 still open

Ajeya Cotra predictions and outcomes

Researcher, METR · 2 predictions · 2 open · none judged yet

METR
Agentsmade Mar 5, 2026, due Dec 2026AI agents will reach a time horizon of over 100 hours on METR-style software tasks by the end of 2026.AGImade Jan 6, 2026, due Jan 2036A self-sufficient AI population, able to survive without humans, is more likely than not within ten years.