AI agents will reach a time horizon of over 100 hours on METR-style software tasks by the end of 2026.
Ajeya Cotra, METR · made Mar 5, 2026 · target Dec 2026 · Open
If we could measure this, I’d guess that by the end of the year, AI agents will have a time horizon of over 100 hours on the sorts of software tasks in METR’s suite [...]
The prediction
- Who
- Ajeya Cotra, Researcher, METR
- Made
- Mar 5, 2026
- Target
- Dec 31, 2026 (stated as "by the end of the year")
- Status
- Openin 3 months
- Source
- Planned Obsolescence: I underestimated AI capabilities (again) Primary: their own words
More from Ajeya Cotra
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | A self-sufficient AI population, able to survive without humans, is more likely than not within ten years.Open · target Jan 2036 | Jan 2036more likely than not within ten years | AGI | Open |
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