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Predictions.

A self-sufficient AI population, able to survive without humans, is more likely than not within ten years.

Ajeya Cotra, METR · made Jan 6, 2026 · target Jan 2036 · Open

I think there might be a self-sufficient AI population within five years, and it’s more likely than not within ten.
Ajeya Cotra, Planned Obsolescence: Self-sufficient AI

The prediction

Who
Ajeya Cotra, Researcher, METR
Made
Jan 6, 2026
Target
Jan 6, 2036 (stated as "more likely than not within ten years")
Status
Openin 9 years
Source
Planned Obsolescence: Self-sufficient AI Primary: their own words
Topics
AGI

More from Ajeya Cotra

Prediction
AI agents will reach a time horizon of over 100 hours on METR-style software tasks by the end of 2026.Open · target Dec 2026

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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

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