Who predicted what

Predictions178Still open163

178 predictions · 163 still open

Sholto Douglas predictions and outcomes

Researcher, Anthropic · 2 predictions · 2 open · none judged yet

Anthropic
ComputeUnverifiedmade May 2025, due Dec 2028The world will have 100 million H100-equivalent chips by 2028, up from 10 million.AgentsUnverifiedmade May 2025, due May 2030A drop-in AI white-collar worker will arrive within five years, very likely within two.