Anthropic predictions and outcomes

anthropic.com · 5 people · 23 predictions · 21 open · 2 due · none judged yet

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Anthropic, PBC is an American artificial intelligence (AI) public benefit corporation headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Sciencemade Sep 2026, due Sep 2036AI could cure most major diseases within the next five to ten years.Dario Amodei, AnthropicAGImade Aug 31, 2026, due Dec 2033AI-run asteroid mining corporations may appear by 2033.Jack Clark, AnthropicAGImade May 26, 2026, due May 2028A new class of technology (AI that builds AI) could arrive within two years.Jack Clark, AnthropicAGImade May 4, 2026, due Dec 2028There is about a 60% chance of automated AI R&D, a model training its own successor, by the end of 2028.Jack Clark, AnthropicAgentsCodingUnverifiedmade Feb 19, 2026, due Dec 2026By the end of 2026 everyone will code and the software engineer title will start to go away.Boris Cherny, AnthropicJobsAGIUnverifiedmade Feb 13, 2026, due Feb 2036A "country of geniuses in a data center" will exist within ten years (90% confidence).Dario Amodei, AnthropicCodingUnverifiedmade Feb 13, 2026, due Feb 2028AI will reach the level of top coders within one or two years.Dario Amodei, AnthropicAGIUnverifiedmade Feb 13, 2026, due Dec 2027Powerful AI, a "country of geniuses in a data center", will arrive in 2026, or 2027 at the latest.Dario Amodei, AnthropicAGIUnverifiedmade Feb 2026, due Dec 2035There is a 90% chance of a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years, by 2035.Dario Amodei, AnthropicAGIUnverifiedmade Feb 13, 2026, due Feb 2028Models equal to a country of geniuses in a data center could exist within one to two years.Dario Amodei, AnthropicJobsmade Jan 2026, due Jan 2031AI will disrupt half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.Dario Amodei, AnthropicAGImade Jan 2026, due Jan 2028AI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomously builds its own next generation.Dario Amodei, AnthropicAgentsCodingUnverifiedmade Jan 2026, due Jan 2027AI models may do most or all of what software engineers do, end to end, within six to 12 months.Dario Amodei, AnthropicJobsJobsUnverifiedmade May 28, 2025, due May 2030AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Dario Amodei, AnthropicJobsUnverifiedmade May 2025, due May 2030White-collar job tasks will be automated within five years even if AI progress stalls.Trenton Bricken, AnthropicComputeUnverifiedmade May 2025, due Dec 2028The world will have 100 million H100-equivalent chips by 2028, up from 10 million.Sholto Douglas, AnthropicAgentsUnverifiedmade May 2025, due May 2030A drop-in AI white-collar worker will arrive within five years, very likely within two.Sholto Douglas, AnthropicJobsSciencemade Apr 1, 2025, due Dec 2027Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.Dario Amodei, AnthropicCodingDue for reviewmade Mar 10, 2025, due Sep 2025Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Dario Amodei, AnthropicCodingDue for reviewmade Mar 10, 2025, due Mar 2026Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.Dario Amodei, AnthropicAGImade Mar 6, 2025, due Mar 2027Powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.AnthropicAGImade Jan 1, 2025, due Dec 2027AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.Dario Amodei, AnthropicAGImade Oct 2024, due Dec 2026Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.Dario Amodei, Anthropic

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Dario AmodeiCEO, Anthropic15 predictions · 13 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7win 7 weeksBCBoris ChernyHead of Claude Code, Anthropic1 prediction · 1 opennext due Dec 2026 in 7win 7 weeksJCJack ClarkCo-founder, Anthropic; author of Import AI3 predictions · 3 opennext due May 2028 in 1yin 1 yearSDSholto DouglasResearcher, Anthropic2 predictions · 2 opennext due Dec 2028 in 2yin 2 yearsTBTrenton BrickenResearcher, Anthropic1 prediction · 1 opennext due May 2030 in 3yin 3 years

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