We simply don’t know what kind of technology we’re going to be looking at even in a year, let alone in five years or ten years, and we’d be entrenching an archaic and potentially counterproductive approach to dealing with the threats from A
Dwarkesh Patel · made Aug 7, 2026 · target Aug 2031 · Open
Unverified Only a secondary source was found; the original words were not read on a page.
This is one of many reasons why I think it’s unwise to lock in some kind of regulatory safety regime right now. We simply don’t know what kind of technology we’re going to be looking at even in a year, let alone in five years or ten years, and we’d be entrenching an archaic and potentially counterproductive approach to dealing with the threats from AI.
The prediction
- Who
- Dwarkesh Patel, Host, Dwarkesh Podcast
- Made
- Aug 7, 2026 8 weeks ago
- Target
- Aug 7, 2031 in 4 years (stated as "in five years")
- Status
- Openin 5 years
- Source
- 8 Predictions for the Era of Continual Learning Primary: their own words · original recording
- Topics
More from Dwarkesh Patel
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 20262 months ago | If by 2028 we’ve automated software engineering and the price of compute is 15x higher than it is right now, then it’s going to be much more difficult for you, with no revenue, to compete for compute against the frontier labs.Open · Unverified · target Dec 2028made 2 months ago | Dec 2028in 2 yearsby 2028 | Compute | Open |
| Dec 202510 months ago | By 2030 labs will have made real progress on continual learning and models will earn hundreds of billions, without automating all knowledge work.Open · target Dec 2030made 10 months ago | Dec 2030in 4 yearsby 2030 | AGI | Open |
| Jun 20251 year ago | AI will do a small business's taxes end to end as well as a competent manager by 2028 (50/50 bet).Open · target Dec 2028made 1 year ago | Dec 2028in 2 years2028 (50/50) | Agents | Open |
| Jun 20251 year ago | AI will learn on the job as well as a human, for example a video editor after six months, by 2032 (50/50 bet).Open · target Dec 2032made 1 year ago | Dec 2032in 6 years2032 (50/50) | AGI | Open |