By 2030 labs will have made real progress on continual learning and models will earn hundreds of billions, without automating all knowledge work.
Dwarkesh Patel, Dwarkesh Podcast · made December 2025 · target Dec 2030 · Open
I expect that by 2030 that the labs will have made significant progress on my hobby horse of continual learning, and the models will start earning 100s of billions in revenue, but they won't have automated all knowledge work
The prediction
- Who
- Dwarkesh Patel, Host, Dwarkesh Podcast
- Made
- December 2025
- Target
- Dec 31, 2030 (stated as "by 2030")
- Status
- Openin 4 years
- Source
- Thoughts on AI progress (Dec 2025) (Dwarkesh Patel) Primary: their own words
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| June 2025 | AI will learn on the job as well as a human, for example a video editor after six months, by 2032 (50/50 bet).Open · target Dec 2032 | Dec 20322032 (50/50) | AGI | Open |
Related predictions
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| Sep 17, 2026 | By the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs.Open · Unverified · Noam Brown, OpenAI · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by the end of 2030 | Compute | Open |
| Sep 17, 2026 |  Asia/Pacific AI and GenAI spending will grow from $121.5 billion in 2025 to $555.2 billion by 2030.Open · IDC · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by 2030 | Markets | Open |
| Sep 17, 2026 | European AI spending will reach nearly $470 billion in 2030.Open · IDC · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030in 2030 | Markets | Open |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AI will add about 8.3% to US GDP by 2030.Open · Azeem Azhar, Exponential View · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by 2030 | Markets | Open |
| Sep 2, 2026 |  Snowflake product revenue for fiscal 2027 will be about $6.07 billion, up 36%.Open · Snowflake · target Jan 2027 | Jan 2027full-year of fiscal 2027 | Data | Open |
| Aug 31, 2026 | AI-run asteroid mining corporations may appear by 2033.Open · Jack Clark, Anthropic · target Dec 2033 | Dec 2033by 2033 | AGI | Open |
Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.