AI will do a small business's taxes end to end as well as a competent manager by 2028 (50/50 bet).
Dwarkesh Patel, Dwarkesh Podcast · made June 2025 · target Dec 2028 · Open
here are the timelines where I'd take a 50/50 bet: AI can do taxes end-to-end for my small business as well as a competent general manager could in a week
The prediction
- Who
- Dwarkesh Patel, Host, Dwarkesh Podcast
- Made
- June 2025
- Target
- Dec 31, 2028 (stated as "2028 (50/50)")
- Status
- Openin 2 years
- Source
- Why I don't think AGI is right around the corner (Dwarkesh Patel) Primary: their own words
- Topics
- Agents
More from Dwarkesh Patel
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | By 2030 labs will have made real progress on continual learning and models will earn hundreds of billions, without automating all knowledge work.Open · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by 2030 | AGI | Open |
| June 2025 | AI will learn on the job as well as a human, for example a video editor after six months, by 2032 (50/50 bet).Open · target Dec 2032 | Dec 20322032 (50/50) | AGI | Open |
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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.