AI will learn on the job as well as a human, for example a video editor after six months, by 2032 (50/50 bet).
Dwarkesh Patel, Dwarkesh Podcast
if I hire an AI video editor, after six months, it has as much actionable, deep understanding of my preferences, our channel, what works for the audience, etc as a human would: 2032
- Who
- Dwarkesh Patel, Host, Dwarkesh Podcast
- Made
- June 2025 1 year ago
- Target
- Dec 31, 2032 in 6 years (stated as "2032 (50/50)")
- Status
- Openin 6 years
- Source
- Why I don't think AGI is right around the corner (Dwarkesh Patel) Primary: their own words
More from Dwarkesh Patel
Related predictions
By 2028, 42% of the world's largest companies will have rationalized their entire agent and app portfolio.
IDCBy the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs.
Noam Brown, OpenAIAGIAgents will make AI as fundamental as electricity for knowledge work within 18 months.
Nathan Lambert, InterconnectsJobsAI-run asteroid mining corporations may appear by 2033.
Jack Clark, AnthropicAI research and development will be fully automated around 2030 to 2031.
Ryan Greenblatt, Redwood ResearchAgentsWithin five years billions of people will have a personal AI agent working for them around the clock.
Mark Zuckerberg, Meta