Dwarkesh Patel predictions and outcomes
Host, Dwarkesh Podcast
3 predictions · 3 open · 0 due · none judged yet
Dwarkesh Patel's predictions
3 of 3 predictions, newest first
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | By 2030 labs will have made real progress on continual learning and models will earn hundreds of billions, without automating all knowledge work.Open · target Dec 2030 | Dec 2030by 2030 | AGI | Open |
| June 2025 | AI will do a small business's taxes end to end as well as a competent manager by 2028 (50/50 bet).Open · target Dec 2028 | Dec 20282028 (50/50) | Agents | Open |
| June 2025 | AI will learn on the job as well as a human, for example a video editor after six months, by 2032 (50/50 bet).Open · target Dec 2032 | Dec 20322032 (50/50) | AGI | Open |
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