Dwarkesh Podcast predictions and outcomes

dwarkesh.com · 1 person

3 predictions · 3 open · 0 due · none judged yet

Predictions from Dwarkesh Podcast

3 of 3 predictions, newest first

Made	Prediction	Target	Topic	Status
December 2025	By 2030 labs will have made real progress on continual learning and models will earn hundreds of billions, without automating all knowledge work.Open · Dwarkesh Patel, Dwarkesh Podcast · target Dec 2030	Dec 2030by 2030	AGI	Open
June 2025	AI will do a small business's taxes end to end as well as a competent manager by 2028 (50/50 bet).Open · Dwarkesh Patel, Dwarkesh Podcast · target Dec 2028	Dec 20282028 (50/50)	Agents	Open
June 2025	AI will learn on the job as well as a human, for example a video editor after six months, by 2032 (50/50 bet).Open · Dwarkesh Patel, Dwarkesh Podcast · target Dec 2032	Dec 20322032 (50/50)	AGI	Open

People and links

Person	Made	Judged	Hit rate	Next due
Dwarkesh PatelHost, Dwarkesh Podcast	3	0	-	Dec 2028in 2 years

Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

Predictions from Dwarkesh Podcast

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