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AI research and development will be fully automated around 2030 to 2031.

Ryan Greenblatt, Redwood Research · made Aug 11, 2026 · target Dec 2031 · Open

Unverified Only a secondary source was found; the original words were not read on a page.

I would say that I expect full automation of AI R&D perhaps somewhere around 2031, 2030.
Ryan Greenblatt, Dwarkesh Podcast: Ryan Greenblatt, What happens once AI can automate AI research? (the quote as reported there)

The prediction

Who
Ryan Greenblatt, Chief Scientist, Redwood Research
Made
Aug 11, 2026
Target
Dec 31, 2031 (stated as "around 2031, 2030")
Status
Openin 5 years
Source
Dwarkesh Podcast: Ryan Greenblatt, What happens once AI can automate AI research? Secondary: a report of what they said
Topics
AGI,Agents

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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

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