By 2028 AI models could have beyond-human reasoning and complete multi-week projects autonomously.
Benjamin Todd, 80,000 Hours
extrapolating the recent rate of progress suggests that, by 2028, we could reach AI models with beyond-human reasoning abilities, expert-level knowledge in every domain, and that can autonomously complete multi-week projects
- Who
- Benjamin Todd, Co-founder, 80,000 Hours
- Made
- March 2025 1 year ago
- Target
- Dec 31, 2028 in 2 years (stated as "by 2028")
- Status
- Openin 2 years
- Source
- Will we have AGI by 2030? (80,000 Hours) Primary: their own words
Related predictions
By 2028, 42% of the world's largest companies will have rationalized their entire agent and app portfolio.
IDCBy the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs.
Noam Brown, OpenAIAGIAgents will make AI as fundamental as electricity for knowledge work within 18 months.
Nathan Lambert, InterconnectsJobsAI-run asteroid mining corporations may appear by 2033.
Jack Clark, AnthropicAI research and development will be fully automated around 2030 to 2031.
Ryan Greenblatt, Redwood ResearchAgentsWithin five years billions of people will have a personal AI agent working for them around the clock.
Mark Zuckerberg, Meta