Making AI agents work like an employee will take about a decade.

Andrej Karpathy, Eureka Labs · made Oct 17, 2025 · target Oct 2035 · Open

It will take about a decade to work through all of those issues.

Andrej Karpathy, Dwarkesh Podcast (transcript)

The prediction

Who: Andrej Karpathy, Founder, Eureka Labs
Made: Oct 17, 2025
Target: Oct 17, 2035 (stated as "about a decade")
Status: Openin 9 years
Source: Dwarkesh Podcast (transcript) Primary: their own words
Topics: Agents,AGI

Made	Prediction	Target	Topic	Status
Oct 28, 2025	OpenAI will have a fully automated AI researcher by 2028.Open · Unverified · Sam Altman, OpenAI · target Dec 2028	Dec 2028by 2028	Agents	Open
Oct 28, 2025	OpenAI will have an intern-level AI research assistant by September 2026.Open · Unverified · Sam Altman, OpenAI · target Sep 2026	Sep 2026by September 2026	Agents	Open
Apr 3, 2025	The impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution.Open · Daniel Kokotajlo, AI Futures Project · target Apr 2035	Apr 2035over the next decade	AGI	Open
Mar 6, 2025	Powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.Open · Anthropic · target Mar 2027	Mar 2027late 2026 or early 2027	AGI	Open
Jan 10, 2025	In 2025 Meta and others will have an AI that can work like a midlevel engineer.Due for review · Unverified · Mark Zuckerberg, Meta · target Dec 2025	Dec 2025probably in 2025	Coding	Due for review
Jan 6, 2025	In 2025 the first AI agents may join the workforce and materially change the output of companies.Due for review · Sam Altman, OpenAI · target Dec 2025	Dec 2025in 2025	Agents	Due for review

Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

The prediction

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