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Predictions.

A billion-parameter model will hold a very productive conversation within 20 years.

Andrej Karpathy, Eureka Labs · made Oct 17, 2025 · target Oct 2045 · Open

Unverified Only a secondary source was found; the original words were not read on a page.

If you talk to a billion parameter model, I think in 20 years, you can have a very productive conversation.
Andrej Karpathy, Dwarkesh Podcast: AGI is still a decade away (the quote as reported there)

The prediction

Who
Andrej Karpathy, Founder, Eureka Labs
Made
Oct 17, 2025
Target
Oct 17, 2045 (stated as "in 20 years")
Status
Openin 19 years
Source
Dwarkesh Podcast: AGI is still a decade away Secondary: a report of what they said · original recording
Topics
AGI

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Making AI agents work like an employee will take about a decade.Open · target Oct 2035

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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

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