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There is a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.

Shane Legg, DeepMind · made Oct 26, 2023 · target Dec 2028 · Open

I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028.
Shane Legg, Dwarkesh Podcast (transcript)

The prediction

Who
Shane Legg, Co-founder and Chief AGI Scientist, Google DeepMind
Made
Oct 26, 2023
Target
Dec 31, 2028 (stated as "by 2028 (50% chance)")
Status
Openin 2 years
Source
Dwarkesh Podcast (transcript) Primary: their own words
Topics
AGI

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Links
DeepMind on Companies (companies.fru.dev)

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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

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