Predictionsby GlyphThere is a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.
Shane Legg, DeepMind
I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028.
- Who
- Shane Legg, Co-founder and Chief AGI Scientist, Google DeepMind
- Made
- Oct 26, 2023 3 years ago
- Target
- Dec 31, 2028 in 2 years (stated as "by 2028 (50% chance)")
- Status
- Openin 2 years
- Source
- Dwarkesh Podcast (transcript) Primary: their own words
- Topics
- AGI
Related predictions
By the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs.
Noam Brown, OpenAIAGIAI-run asteroid mining corporations may appear by 2033.
Jack Clark, AnthropicAI research and development will be fully automated around 2030 to 2031.
Ryan Greenblatt, Redwood ResearchAgentsA new class of technology (AI that builds AI) could arrive within two years.Jack Clark, AnthropicThere is about a 60% chance of automated AI R&D, a model training its own successor, by the end of 2028.Jack Clark, AnthropicAgentsMost white-collar tasks done at a computer will be fully automated by AI within 12 to 18 months.
Mustafa Suleyman, MicrosoftAGI