There is about a 60% chance of automated AI R&D, a model training its own successor, by the end of 2028.
Jack Clark, Anthropic · made May 4, 2026 · target Dec 2028 · Open
Given all of this, I think there’s a ~60% chance we see automated AI R&D (where a frontier model is able to autonomously train a successor version of itself) by the end of 2028.
The prediction
- Who
- Jack Clark, Co-founder, Anthropic; author of Import AI
- Made
- May 4, 2026
- Target
- Dec 31, 2028 (stated as "by the end of 2028")
- Status
- Openin 2 years
- Source
- Import AI 455: AI systems are about to start building themselves Primary: their own words
More from Jack Clark
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | AI-run asteroid mining corporations may appear by 2033.Open · target Dec 2033 | Dec 2033by 2033 | AGI | Open |
| May 26, 2026 | A new class of technology (AI that builds AI) could arrive within two years.Open · target May 2028 | May 2028within the next two years | AGI | Open |
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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.