Predictionsby GlyphThere is about a 60% chance of automated AI R&D, a model training its own successor, by the end of 2028.
Jack Clark, Anthropic
Given all of this, I think there’s a ~60% chance we see automated AI R&D (where a frontier model is able to autonomously train a successor version of itself) by the end of 2028.
- Who
- Jack Clark, Co-founder, Anthropic; author of Import AI
- Made
- May 4, 2026 6 months ago
- Target
- Dec 31, 2028 in 2 years (stated as "by the end of 2028")
- Status
- Openin 2 years
- Source
- Import AI 455: AI systems are about to start building themselves Primary: their own words
More from Jack Clark
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