The impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution.
Daniel Kokotajlo, AI Futures Project · made Apr 3, 2025 · target Apr 2035 · Open
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
The prediction
- Who
- Daniel Kokotajlo, Lead author, AI 2027
- Made
- Apr 3, 2025
- Target
- Apr 3, 2035 (stated as "over the next decade")
- Status
- Openin 9 years
- Source
- AI 2027 (scenario) Primary: their own words
- Topics
- AGI
Related predictions
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2025 | Making AI agents work like an employee will take about a decade.Open · Andrej Karpathy, Eureka Labs · target Oct 2035 | Oct 2035about a decade | Agents | Open |
| Mar 6, 2025 |  Powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.Open · Anthropic · target Mar 2027 | Mar 2027late 2026 or early 2027 | AGI | Open |
| October 2024 | Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.Open · Dario Amodei, Anthropic · target Dec 2026 | Dec 2026as early as 2026 | AGI | Open |
| Sep 23, 2024 | Superintelligence could arrive in a few thousand days.Open · Sam Altman, OpenAI · target Dec 2032 | Dec 2032in a few thousand days (about 3,000 days, read as late 2032) | AGI | Open |
| Mar 19, 2024 | AGI, defined as passing a set of tests better than most people, will arrive within 5 years.Open · Unverified · Jensen Huang, Nvidia · target Mar 2029 | Mar 2029within 5 years | AGI | Open |
| Oct 26, 2023 | There is a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.Open · Shane Legg, DeepMind · target Dec 2028 | Dec 2028by 2028 (50% chance) | AGI | Open |
Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.