Superintelligence could arrive in a few thousand days.
Sam Altman, OpenAI · made Sep 23, 2024 · target Dec 2032 · Open
It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I'm confident we'll get there.
The prediction
- Who
- Sam Altman, CEO, OpenAI
- Made
- Sep 23, 2024
- Target
- Dec 10, 2032 (stated as "in a few thousand days (about 3,000 days, read as late 2032)")
- Status
- Openin 6 years
- Source
- The Intelligence Age (essay) Primary: their own words
- Topics
- AGI
More from Sam Altman
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | OpenAI will have a fully automated AI researcher by 2028.Open · Unverified · target Dec 2028 | Dec 2028by 2028 | Agents | Open |
| Oct 28, 2025 | OpenAI will have an intern-level AI research assistant by September 2026.Open · Unverified · target Sep 2026 | Sep 2026by September 2026 | Agents | Open |
| Jun 10, 2025 | 2027 may see robots that can do tasks in the real world.Open · target Dec 2027 | Dec 20272027 | Robotics | Open |
| Jun 10, 2025 | 2026 will likely see AI systems that can figure out novel insights.Open · target Dec 2026 | Dec 20262026 | Science | Open |
| Jan 6, 2025 | In 2025 the first AI agents may join the workforce and materially change the output of companies.Due for review · target Dec 2025 | Dec 2025in 2025 | Agents | Due for review |
Related predictions
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2025 | Making AI agents work like an employee will take about a decade.Open · Andrej Karpathy, Eureka Labs · target Oct 2035 | Oct 2035about a decade | Agents | Open |
| Apr 3, 2025 | The impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution.Open · Daniel Kokotajlo, AI Futures Project · target Apr 2035 | Apr 2035over the next decade | AGI | Open |
| Mar 6, 2025 |  Powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.Open · Anthropic · target Mar 2027 | Mar 2027late 2026 or early 2027 | AGI | Open |
| October 2024 | Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.Open · Dario Amodei, Anthropic · target Dec 2026 | Dec 2026as early as 2026 | AGI | Open |
| Mar 19, 2024 | AGI, defined as passing a set of tests better than most people, will arrive within 5 years.Open · Unverified · Jensen Huang, Nvidia · target Mar 2029 | Mar 2029within 5 years | AGI | Open |
| Oct 26, 2023 | There is a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.Open · Shane Legg, DeepMind · target Dec 2028 | Dec 2028by 2028 (50% chance) | AGI | Open |
Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.