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AI will reach the level of top coders within one or two years.

Dario Amodei, Anthropic · made Feb 13, 2026 · target Feb 2028 · Open

Unverified Only a secondary source was found; the original words were not read on a page.

With coding, except for that irreducible uncertainty, I think we’ll be there in one or two years.
Dario Amodei, Dwarkesh Podcast: We are near the end of the exponential (the quote as reported there)

The prediction

Who
Dario Amodei, CEO, Anthropic
Made
Feb 13, 2026
Target
Feb 13, 2028 (stated as "in one or two years")
Status
Openin 17 months
Source
Dwarkesh Podcast: We are near the end of the exponential Secondary: a report of what they said · original recording
Topics
Coding

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AI will disrupt half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.Open · target Jan 2031
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AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Open · Unverified · target May 2030
Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.Open · target Dec 2027
Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Due for review · target Sep 2025
Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.Due for review · target Mar 2026
AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.Open · target Dec 2027
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Links
Anthropic on Companies (companies.fru.dev)

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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

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