Predictionsby GlyphAI will reach the level of top coders within one or two years.
Dario Amodei, Anthropic
Unverified Only a secondary source was found; the original words were not read on a page.
With coding, except for that irreducible uncertainty, I think we’ll be there in one or two years.
- Who
- Dario Amodei, CEO, Anthropic
- Made
- Feb 13, 2026 8 months ago
- Target
- Feb 13, 2028 in 1 year (stated as "in one or two years")
- Status
- Openin 15 months
- Source
- Dwarkesh Podcast: We are near the end of the exponential Secondary: a report of what they said · original recording
- Topics
- Coding
More from Dario Amodei
AI could cure most major diseases within the next five to ten years.A "country of geniuses in a data center" will exist within ten years (90% confidence).Powerful AI, a "country of geniuses in a data center", will arrive in 2026, or 2027 at the latest.There is a 90% chance of a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years, by 2035.Models equal to a country of geniuses in a data center could exist within one to two years.AI will disrupt half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.AI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomously builds its own next generation.AI models may do most or all of what software engineers do, end to end, within six to 12 months.AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.
Related predictions
60% of organizations will run smaller software engineering teams by 2029, up from 15% in 2026.
GartnerJobsAI coding will cost more than an average developer's salary by 2028 as token prices rise.GartnerMarketsAI agents will reach a time horizon of over 100 hours on METR-style software tasks by the end of 2026.
Ajeya Cotra, METRCodingBy the end of 2026 everyone will code and the software engineer title will start to go away.
Boris Cherny, AnthropicJobsBy 2030 AI will autonomously fix issues, implement features and solve hard, well-defined scientific programming problems.
Epoch AIWithin 12 to 18 months, most of the code for Meta's Llama efforts will be written by AI.
Mark Zuckerberg, Meta