Predictionsby GlyphAI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomously builds its own next generation.
Dario Amodei, Anthropic
This feedback loop is gathering steam month by month, and may be only 1–2 years away from a point where the current generation of AI autonomously builds the next.
- Who
- Dario Amodei, CEO, Anthropic
- Made
- January 2026 10 months ago
- Target
- Jan 1, 2028 in 1 year (stated as "1–2 years away")
- Status
- Openin 14 months
- Source
- The Adolescence of Technology, Dario Amodei essay Primary: their own words
More from Dario Amodei
AI could cure most major diseases within the next five to ten years.A "country of geniuses in a data center" will exist within ten years (90% confidence).AI will reach the level of top coders within one or two years.Powerful AI, a "country of geniuses in a data center", will arrive in 2026, or 2027 at the latest.There is a 90% chance of a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years, by 2035.Models equal to a country of geniuses in a data center could exist within one to two years.AI will disrupt half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.AI models may do most or all of what software engineers do, end to end, within six to 12 months.AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.
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