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There is a 90% chance of a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years, by 2035.

Dario Amodei, Anthropic · made February 2026 · target Dec 2035 · Open

Unverified Only a secondary source was found; the original words were not read on a page.

On the ten-year timeline I'm at 90%, which is about as certain as you can be. I think it's crazy to say that this won't happen by 2035.
Dario Amodei, Dario Amodei (Dwarkesh Podcast transcript, February 2026) (the quote as reported there)

The prediction

Who
Dario Amodei, CEO, Anthropic
Made
February 2026
Target
Dec 31, 2035 (stated as "by 2035 (90%)")
Status
Openin 9 years
Source
Dario Amodei (Dwarkesh Podcast transcript, February 2026) Secondary: a report of what they said
Topics
AGI

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AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Open · Unverified · target May 2030
Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.Open · target Dec 2027
Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Due for review · target Sep 2025
Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.Due for review · target Mar 2026
AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.Open · target Dec 2027
Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.Open · target Dec 2026

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Links
Anthropic on Companies (companies.fru.dev)

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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

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