Predictionsby GlyphThere is a 90% chance of a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years, by 2035.
Dario Amodei, Anthropic
Unverified Only a secondary source was found; the original words were not read on a page.
On the ten-year timeline I'm at 90%, which is about as certain as you can be. I think it's crazy to say that this won't happen by 2035.
- Who
- Dario Amodei, CEO, Anthropic
- Made
- February 2026 8 months ago
- Target
- Dec 31, 2035 in 9 years (stated as "by 2035 (90%)")
- Status
- Openin 9 years
- Source
- Dario Amodei (Dwarkesh Podcast transcript, February 2026) Secondary: a report of what they said
- Topics
- AGI
More from Dario Amodei
AI could cure most major diseases within the next five to ten years.A "country of geniuses in a data center" will exist within ten years (90% confidence).AI will reach the level of top coders within one or two years.Powerful AI, a "country of geniuses in a data center", will arrive in 2026, or 2027 at the latest.Models equal to a country of geniuses in a data center could exist within one to two years.AI will disrupt half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.AI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomously builds its own next generation.AI models may do most or all of what software engineers do, end to end, within six to 12 months.AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.
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