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A "country of geniuses in a data center" will exist within ten years (90% confidence).

Dario Amodei, Anthropic · made Feb 13, 2026 · target Feb 2036 · Open

Unverified Only a secondary source was found; the original words were not read on a page.

On the basic hypothesis of, as you put it, within ten years we’ll get to what I call a “country of geniuses in a data center”, I’m at 90% on that.
Dario Amodei, Dwarkesh Podcast: We are near the end of the exponential (the quote as reported there)

The prediction

Who
Dario Amodei, CEO, Anthropic
Made
Feb 13, 2026
Target
Feb 13, 2036 (stated as "within ten years")
Status
Openin 9 years
Source
Dwarkesh Podcast: We are near the end of the exponential Secondary: a report of what they said · original recording
Topics
AGI

More from Dario Amodei

Prediction
AI could cure most major diseases within the next five to ten years.Open · target Sep 2036
AI will reach the level of top coders within one or two years.Open · Unverified · target Feb 2028
Powerful AI, a "country of geniuses in a data center", will arrive in 2026, or 2027 at the latest.Open · Unverified · target Dec 2027
There is a 90% chance of a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years, by 2035.Open · Unverified · target Dec 2035
Models equal to a country of geniuses in a data center could exist within one to two years.Open · Unverified · target Feb 2028
AI will disrupt half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.Open · target Jan 2031
AI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomously builds its own next generation.Open · target Jan 2028
AI models may do most or all of what software engineers do, end to end, within six to 12 months.Open · Unverified · target Jan 2027
AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Open · Unverified · target May 2030
Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.Open · target Dec 2027
Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Due for review · target Sep 2025
Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.Due for review · target Mar 2026
AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.Open · target Dec 2027
Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.Open · target Dec 2026

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Links
Anthropic on Companies (companies.fru.dev)

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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

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