Predictionsby GlyphModels equal to a country of geniuses in a data center could exist within one to two years.
Dario Amodei, Anthropic
Unverified Only a secondary source was found; the original words were not read on a page.
I really do believe that we could have models that are a country of geniuses in the data center in one to two years.
- Who
- Dario Amodei, CEO, Anthropic
- Made
- Feb 13, 2026 8 months ago
- Target
- Feb 13, 2028 in 1 year (stated as "in one to two years")
- Status
- Openin 15 months
- Source
- Dwarkesh Podcast: We are near the end of the exponential Secondary: a report of what they said · original recording
- Topics
- AGI
More from Dario Amodei
AI could cure most major diseases within the next five to ten years.A "country of geniuses in a data center" will exist within ten years (90% confidence).AI will reach the level of top coders within one or two years.Powerful AI, a "country of geniuses in a data center", will arrive in 2026, or 2027 at the latest.There is a 90% chance of a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years, by 2035.AI will disrupt half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.AI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomously builds its own next generation.AI models may do most or all of what software engineers do, end to end, within six to 12 months.AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.
Related predictions
By the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs.
Noam Brown, OpenAIAGIAI-run asteroid mining corporations may appear by 2033.
Jack Clark, AnthropicAI research and development will be fully automated around 2030 to 2031.
Ryan Greenblatt, Redwood ResearchAgentsA new class of technology (AI that builds AI) could arrive within two years.Jack Clark, AnthropicThere is about a 60% chance of automated AI R&D, a model training its own successor, by the end of 2028.Jack Clark, AnthropicAgentsMost white-collar tasks done at a computer will be fully automated by AI within 12 to 18 months.
Mustafa Suleyman, MicrosoftAGI