Predictionsby GlyphAI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.
Dario Amodei, Anthropic
Making AI that is smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips, tens of billions of dollars (at least), and is most likely to happen in 2026-2027.
- Who
- Dario Amodei, CEO, Anthropic
- Made
- Jan 1, 2025 1 year ago
- Target
- Dec 31, 2027 in 1 year (stated as "most likely to happen in 2026-2027")
- Status
- Openin 14 months
- Source
- On DeepSeek and Export Controls Primary: their own words · original recording
- Topics
- AGI
More from Dario Amodei
AI could cure most major diseases within the next five to ten years.A "country of geniuses in a data center" will exist within ten years (90% confidence).AI will reach the level of top coders within one or two years.Powerful AI, a "country of geniuses in a data center", will arrive in 2026, or 2027 at the latest.There is a 90% chance of a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years, by 2035.Models equal to a country of geniuses in a data center could exist within one to two years.AI will disrupt half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.AI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomously builds its own next generation.AI models may do most or all of what software engineers do, end to end, within six to 12 months.AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.
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