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AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.

Dario Amodei, Anthropic · made Jan 1, 2025 · target Dec 2027 · Open

Making AI that is smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips, tens of billions of dollars (at least), and is most likely to happen in 2026-2027.
Dario Amodei, On DeepSeek and Export Controls

The prediction

Who
Dario Amodei, CEO, Anthropic
Made
Jan 1, 2025
Target
Dec 31, 2027 (stated as "most likely to happen in 2026-2027")
Status
Openin 15 months
Source
On DeepSeek and Export Controls Primary: their own words · original recording
Topics
AGI

More from Dario Amodei

Prediction
AI could cure most major diseases within the next five to ten years.Open · target Sep 2036
A "country of geniuses in a data center" will exist within ten years (90% confidence).Open · Unverified · target Feb 2036
AI will reach the level of top coders within one or two years.Open · Unverified · target Feb 2028
Powerful AI, a "country of geniuses in a data center", will arrive in 2026, or 2027 at the latest.Open · Unverified · target Dec 2027
There is a 90% chance of a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years, by 2035.Open · Unverified · target Dec 2035
Models equal to a country of geniuses in a data center could exist within one to two years.Open · Unverified · target Feb 2028
AI will disrupt half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.Open · target Jan 2031
AI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomously builds its own next generation.Open · target Jan 2028
AI models may do most or all of what software engineers do, end to end, within six to 12 months.Open · Unverified · target Jan 2027
AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Open · Unverified · target May 2030
Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.Open · target Dec 2027
Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Due for review · target Sep 2025
Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.Due for review · target Mar 2026
Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.Open · target Dec 2026

Related predictions

Prediction
By the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs.Open · Unverified · Noam Brown · target Dec 2030
AI-run asteroid mining corporations may appear by 2033.Open · Jack Clark · target Dec 2033
AI research and development will be fully automated around 2030 to 2031.Open · Unverified · Ryan Greenblatt · target Dec 2031
A new class of technology (AI that builds AI) could arrive within two years.Open · Jack Clark · target May 2028
There is about a 60% chance of automated AI R&D, a model training its own successor, by the end of 2028.Open · Jack Clark · target Dec 2028
Most white-collar tasks done at a computer will be fully automated by AI within 12 to 18 months.Open · Unverified · Mustafa Suleyman · target Aug 2027
Links
Anthropic on Companies (companies.fru.dev)

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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.

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