Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.
Dario Amodei, Anthropic · made October 2024 · target Dec 2026 · Open
I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.
The prediction
- Who
- Dario Amodei, CEO, Anthropic
- Made
- October 2024
- Target
- Dec 31, 2026 (stated as "as early as 2026")
- Status
- Openin 3 months
- Source
- Machines of Loving Grace (essay) Primary: their own words
- Topics
- AGI
More from Dario Amodei
| Prediction | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2025 | AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.Open · Unverified · target May 2030 | May 2030in the next one to five years | Jobs | Open |
| Mar 10, 2025 | Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Due for review · target Sep 2025 | Sep 2025three to six months | Coding | Due for review |
| Mar 10, 2025 | Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.Due for review · target Mar 2026 | Mar 2026in twelve months | Coding | Due for review |
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Sources: the source linked on each prediction, checked weekly; outcomes judged on the evidence linked. Logos via logo.dev; trademarks belong to their owners.