Predictionsby GlyphPowerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.
Anthropic
we expect powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.
- Who
- Anthropic
- Made
- Mar 6, 2025 1 year ago
- Target
- Mar 31, 2027 in 4 months (stated as "late 2026 or early 2027")
- Status
- Openin 5 months
- Source
- Anthropic's recommendations to OSTP for the U.S. AI Action Plan Primary: their own words
- Topics
- AGI
More from Anthropic
AI could cure most major diseases within the next five to ten years.AI-run asteroid mining corporations may appear by 2033.A new class of technology (AI that builds AI) could arrive within two years.There is about a 60% chance of automated AI R&D, a model training its own successor, by the end of 2028.By the end of 2026 everyone will code and the software engineer title will start to go away.A "country of geniuses in a data center" will exist within ten years (90% confidence).AI will reach the level of top coders within one or two years.Powerful AI, a "country of geniuses in a data center", will arrive in 2026, or 2027 at the latest.There is a 90% chance of a country of geniuses in a data center within ten years, by 2035.Models equal to a country of geniuses in a data center could exist within one to two years.AI will disrupt half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.AI may be one to two years from the point where it autonomously builds its own next generation.AI models may do most or all of what software engineers do, end to end, within six to 12 months.AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to as much as 20% within one to five years.White-collar job tasks will be automated within five years even if AI progress stalls.The world will have 100 million H100-equivalent chips by 2028, up from 10 million.A drop-in AI white-collar worker will arrive within five years, very likely within two.Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.Within three to six months, AI will be writing 90 percent of the code.Within twelve months, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will most likely arrive in 2026 or 2027.Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026.
Related predictions
By the end of 2030 each leading lab will have compute to run hundreds of millions of human-level AIs.
Noam Brown, OpenAIAGIAI research and development will be fully automated around 2030 to 2031.
Ryan Greenblatt, Redwood ResearchAgentsMost white-collar tasks done at a computer will be fully automated by AI within 12 to 18 months.
Mustafa Suleyman, MicrosoftAGIAI will exceed the combined intelligence of all humans in about five or six years.
Elon Musk, xAIDigital human emulation, AI that can do any job done at a computer, will be solved by the end of 2026.Elon Musk, xAIAGIA full AGI system, including physical intelligence, is five to ten years away.
Demis Hassabis, DeepMind